Russia's grain harvest may fall 20-26 percent to 72-78 million tons in 2010 as Russia suffers its worst drought in decades, Russian Grain Union President Arkady Zlochevsky said on Monday.
Russia's 2009 harvest totaled 97 million tons.
The Russian Grain Union predicts three possible scenarios for development of the grain market.
In the worst case, Russia will harvest only 72 million tons and export 11 million tons, while reserve stocks will amount to 10.4-14.4 million tons.
In the cautiously optimistic scenario, the harvest will amount to 75 million tons and exports to 14 million tons, while reserves will total 10.4-14.4 million tons.
In the best case, Russia could harvest 78 million tons of grain and export 19.5 million tons while reserves will stand at 7.9-11.9 million tons.
Grain imports in any case will amount to just 0.4 million tons.
With domestic consumption of 71-75 million tons and reserve stocks of 24 million tons as of July 1, Russia's predicted grain harvest in 2010 will suffice to meet the country's grain needs, and there were no grounds for bread price hikes in Russia, Zlochevsky said.
The drought has destroyed crops on an area of 10 million hectares or 20 percent of Russia's cultivated land, according to the latest data.
MOSCOW, August 2 (RIA Novosti)