The British newspaper The Guardian has published diplomatic cables that reveal secret NATO plans to defend the Baltics against an attack by Russia.
According to the cables, obtained by the whistle-blowing website WikiLeaks, nine NATO divisions - U.S., British, German, and Polish - have been tasked with conducting combat operations in the event of armed aggression against Poland or the three Baltic states. In addition, ports in the north of Poland and Germany have been selected to receive naval assault forces and British and U.S. warships.
The Guardian reports that the decision to draft contingency plans for Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania was made secretly earlier this year at the urging of the United States and Germany at NATO headquarters in Belgium.
This is the first NATO document laying out a military plan in the event of a war between Russia and the Baltic states.
Symbolic protection
The Baltic countries, which joined NATO during its fifth round of expansion in 2005, continue to seek assurances from NATO and the United States that they will be protected from Russian aggression.
The Guardian writes that while Germany and other large NATO countries were improving relations with Russia and officially termed it a "partner" and not an adversary, the Baltic countries called "for hard security guarantees" against the threat posed by "a resurgent Russia."
Their calls intensified after the five-day Georgian-Russian war over South Ossetia, when speculation about a new Cold War was running rampant in Russia and the West. By that time, there had remained disagreement between Russia and NATO on a number of issues, from the CFE treaty on conventional forces in Europe to the proposed missile defense shield. However, it was the war in South Ossetia that prompted NATO to draft a relatively detailed plan for defending Poland and the Baltic states from their eastern neighbor.
Earlier this year, the United States started "rotating Patriot missiles into Poland in a move that Warsaw celebrates publicly as ... demonstrating American commitment to Poland's security," according to the cables.
However, it was a symbolic gesture rather than concrete support. According to the leaked cables, "the Patriot battery, deployed on a rotating basis at Morag in north-eastern Poland, 40 miles from the border with Russia's Kaliningrad exclave, is purely for training purposes, and is neither operational nor armed with missiles."
The value of the contingency plan for the three Baltic countries, drafted in 2009 and adopted in early 2010, is likewise symbolic. The Baltics' best protection is agreements between NATO and Russia that make a military conflict in Europe extremely unlikely.
A hypothetic threat ...
It is a fact that both NATO and Russia continue to draft such contingency plans. But while NATO is focusing on the defense of the Baltics, the Russian military is working out a strategy to suppress a U.S. missile defense shield in Eastern Europe in the event that it poses a threat to Russia.
The details of the Russian plans remain classified. However, it can be assumed that a conflict between Russia and NATO would involve the Baltic countries, Poland and likely other East European countries.
Such plans are usually based on the principle of preparing for the worst while hoping for the best. No one in the leadership of Russia or NATO is capable of launching a war out of a misguided understanding of national interests or for messianic reasons. The simple fact is that such a war would mean the end of modern civilization.
But there is always a possibility that dangerous people will come to power, especially during times of economic turbulence, which fuels radical sentiments. I'm not claiming that John McCain would have launched a war against Russia had he been elected president in 2008, but tensions in Europe would have certainly increased.
... and real dangers
To prevent such a hypothetical threat from becoming reality, Russia and NATO must find common ground in their fight against real dangers, such as instability in the Middle East and Central Asia, terrorism, trafficking in drugs and weapons, sea piracy, natural and man-made disasters, and lastly, nuclear and WMD proliferation.
These are the real threats guiding the activities of NATO and Russia today. The situation in Eurasia depends on what will happen in Central Asia in the next three to five years, and only joint actions by NATO and Russia can prevent the Afghan conflict from spreading throughout the region.
Priorities
Unlike the Cold War, the current situation is far less controllable. In the past, the Soviet Union, represented by the Warsaw Pact, and the United States, working through NATO, could focus on plans for an all-out war, using local and regional conflicts to influence the other side and to bolster their position.
But the United States and the Soviet Union created a monster in the process. Now the national liberation fronts and fundamentalist movements that the two sides unwisely fostered have taken on a life of their own.
The process accelerated after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, when Russia lost its grip on the situation. Uncontrollable processes in the developing world have become the main threat to stability worldwide, unlike the hypothetical threat of a Russia-NATO war.
Against this backdrop, militant Cold War-style rhetoric will only distract Washington, Brussels and Moscow from the real problems at hand.
The views expressed in this article are the author's and do not necessarily represent those of RIA Novosti.
