What quite recently seemed like a whim born of Nordic exceptionalism and egotism has started to take shape. Scandinavian nations, including Denmark’s Faroe Islands, Finland’s Aland Islands and Greenland, are seriously contemplating whether to become a single entity within the European Union. What do the Scandinavian countries stand to gain from this alliance within an alliance?
Professor Gunnar Wetterberg, a prominent Swedish historian, first proposed the United Nordic Federation in a 2009 book in which he describes the new federation as something like a Scandinavian Switzerland or a United States of Scandinavia. The member states would preserve their national identities but not their sovereignty. Foreign, defense and some economic policy would be the responsibility of a federal government. The book has become an official document of the Nordic Council, a regional political forum of all the five Nordic countries and their islands.
Pros and cons of a Viking union
The idea may have won over more Scandinavians had it not been proposed by a Swede. The rest of Scandinavia has a well-grounded suspicion of all initiatives coming from Sweden – a historical grudge born in the earliest days in their shared history. Norwegians and Finns, oppressed by the Swedes and Danish for ages, do not yet share their neighbors’ enthusiasm for federalism. The reason is simple: In this Swedish vision, the Nordic federation will be under the symbolic rule of the Danish crown. Norway, however, gained independence from the Kingdom of Denmark only in 1905, and it is unwilling to become a jewel in Denmark’s crown again, even symbolically.
But there are strong economic arguments in favor of a single Scandinavian market with a governing superstructure. And the idea has been gaining more traction recently amid the euro crisis. Neither Norway, Iceland nor Greenland (an autonomous country in the Kingdom of Denmark) are EU members, but they are part of the European Economic Area, and as such they form a single market with the EU.
The population of the Nordic five totals about 25 million people with a gross GDP of approximately $1.6 trillion. This is slightly higher than the GDP of Spain, the fifth largest economy in the EU and the ninth largest economy in the world. The Nordic countries believe that forming their own miniature United States will immediately make them a force in all global economic forums, including the G20 in which none of them currently takes part.
And as their economic clout grows, they will be able to make the Nordic voice heard in global politics. So far Nordic states have been primarily enlisted as mediators owing to their tact.
The United Nordic Federation would have remained a mere curio were it not for the Arctic. While the Scandinavians look to the EU for trade, they look to the Arctic for natural resources. And they’ve surely noticed Russia’s efforts to delimit the boundaries of its portion of Arctic continental shelf, automatically giving Russia the right to the treasure trove of natural resources it contains, not to mention the resources of the sea and northern sea routes.
A Nordic shield for the Arctic
The proposed United Nordic Federation would have military implications as well. In 2009, Norway’s former foreign and defense minister, Thorvald Stoltenberg, proposed that the Nordic Council create a Nordic Pact, a kind of mini-NATO (neither Sweden nor Finland belong to NATO). Foreign ministers of the Nordic five held a wide-ranging discussion on the initiative in Reykjavik in November 2010 and will study it further at a meeting in Helsinki in April 2011.
The pact’s zone of responsibility would include the territory of its member states and the Arctic. The organization would include military and civilian (primarily rescue) rapid-response forces, joint amphibious forces, a border guard service, a cyber warfare center, a center for air, maritime and satellite reconnaissance and a coordinating center for all actions in the Arctic.
In a recent interview, Stoltenberg said that his initiative was a response to the rapidly changing geopolitical environment. “We live in a world where ‘far away’ does not exist any more,” he said. “We must be able to meet our responsibilities…on the challenges of an increasingly ice-free Arctic.”
This is almost a direct response to Russia’s 2020 National Defense Strategy, which President Dmitry Medvedev signed in May 2009. This strategy made the blood of many in the West run cold. Of particular concern was the section on Russia’s role and position in the world, which discusses the threat of natural resource-driven conflicts on its borders and leaves open the option of a military solution.
National strategies are not just a statement of a nation’s interests and concerns but also a warning. As such, officials around the world, who have been concerned about the question of Arctic resources for a long time, made the unambiguous conclusion that Moscow is prepared to defend its interests in the Arctic. The era of planting flags on the bottom of the Arctic Ocean is over. The game is turning serious.
All major Scandinavian defense companies have already expressed their support for the idea. If the Nordic Pact becomes reality, the Nordic arms market will become the fourth largest in the world, said a spokesperson for Sweden’s Saab, Scandinavia’s leading aerospace and defense company.
However, the main driving force behind the Nordic Pact is the support of the Norwegian government. Thorvald Stoltenberg, the man behind the plan, is the father of Norwegian Prime Minister Jens Stoltenberg.
The views expressed in this article are the author’s and do not necessarily represent those of RIA Novosti.
