"History's dustbin is populated by empires and dictatorships that underestimated America's national character, resolve, and resilience," U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates said on the eve of his visit to China. You hear similar pronouncements in every quarter of the U.S. political establishment, but Gates' message was clearly aimed at his hosts.
Now Chinese President Hu Jintao is in the United States for - among other things - wide-ranging talks with President Barack Obama. Defense, the strategic balance of power, trade, currency policy - these issues no doubt topped the agenda of Wednesday's talks.
In the run-up to Hu's visit, Obama and his entire administration have made one thing clear: the U.S. is not afraid of China, and will remain a superpower for a long time to come.
Changing attitudes
In fact, this refrain was heard from the Obama administration all last year. It is understandable that the U.S. does not want to appear weak, but forming anti-Chinese alliances and taking advantage of tensions in the region - surely this is an overreaction.
When North Korea allegedly sank the South Korean warship, the Cheonan, the U.S. parked a few aircraft carriers off the coast of China, which has none of its own. Its response was the same when the two Koreas recently exchanged artillery fire in disputed waters. The U.S. also managed to create a scandal out of thin air, accusing China of an aggressive posture toward disputed territories in the South China Sea. The allegations may have sounded convincing to some, but not to those versed in the history of the issue.
It appears that all this muscle-flexing was just ploy for leverage with China. The administration's real concerns are finance, trade and China's currency policy. These are the areas where the U.S. faces the most serious problems.
America the not so almighty
During Hu's visit, the Chinese and Americans will probably hold the most important trade talks of the decade. It's clear by now what the U.S. and China want from each other, but the outcome of the talks remains unclear. Again, these are not your run-of-the-mill trade talks between two large economies. What is decided at these talks will have a lasting impact on global economic relations, and may prevent a repeat of the 2008 financial crisis.
In the current global economic system, China acts as the world's factory, producing goods that it then sells to the U.S. and Europe. Since China gained membership in the WTO in 2001, U.S. imports to China have increased from $19 billion to $90 billion, while China amassed more currency reserves than the EU, Russia and Japan combined. Meanwhile, the U.S. trade deficit with China is nearing $300 billion, and Washington clearly wants to reverse this trend. To this end, it needs to convince China to import more U.S. goods and revalue the yuan, a popular topic among economists in recent years. If China refuses to budge, Washington may continue to exert diplomatic pressure on China, i.e. more warships off China's coast.
The need for compromise
This is classic American behavior. And China has not strayed from its traditional tactics either. Ahead of his visit, the Chinese leader gave an interview to The Washington Post and The Wall Street Journal. The main thrust of Hu's responses was that the two nations need to learn to compromise, to build trust, and to think about old problems in a new way. And despite the needling on both sides, that is exactly what they are trying to do. Even though there have been no breakthroughs in China's relationship with the Obama administration, the two parties are obviously on the right path and will surely develop a sustainable model of coexistence sooner or later.
No matter how hard the Obama administration may try to secure its dominance over China, it has to face the facts - China's exports are growing twice as fast as the rest of its economy. Unlike the Soviet Union, which was economically competitive only in its own cloistered socialist camp, China is beating its rivals on the same playing field. Washington's traditional allies are waning, while new economic leaders, such as India, Brazil, Turkey and Russia, are neither Chinese allies nor long-standing U.S. allies. There are two American companies and three Chinese companies on the Fortune's list of the ten largest global corporations. And while America is by no means ready for the dustbin of history, the fact is that its role in the world has changed.
The views expressed in this article are the author's and do not necessarily represent those of RIA Novosti.
