The unrest in Egypt has infected the rest of the world. Oil prices are rising, and there are even fears that the Suez Canal could be closed to shipping. It's unlikely that the crisis in Egypt will come to this. But one thing is clear: Egypt has set the entire world on edge.
Egypt's last pharaoh
The question being asked in capitals across the world - from Washington to Moscow, Tel Aviv and London - is how much longer President Hosni Mubarak will be able to remain in power.
Everyone agrees that his 30-year rule must end. It is not a matter of "if" but "when" he will go. The real question is how to prevent a post-Mubarak Egypt from falling to the force of radical Islam?
U.S. President Barack Obama has called for "an orderly transition to a government that is responsive to the aspirations of the Egyptian people."
Washington has to choose its words carefully. It cannot openly turn its back on an ally, while continuing to offer support for a moribund regime could put the U.S. on the wrong side of history.
The fact is that the situation in Egypt is still taking shape. What began as spontaneous protests against dire economic conditions and a lack of freedom one week ago has grown into a battle against Mubarak and his family. Tanks are lining the streets "to maintain security" but the army is not eager to quell the unrest.
Protests in Cairo and other cities are subsiding. This could be a product of Mubarak's cunning strategy: let the people blow off steam and wait until they tire of the chaos and the looting before restoring order and tranquility in the country and, of course, shoring up his power.
This strategy has worked before, but Egyptians have suffered too long to fall for it again. Reshuffling the Cabinet cannot heal the deep wounds inflicted on the Egyptian people during Mubarak's 30-year rule, even though he is far from the worst ruler the Middle East has seen.
Last week's unruly uprising is giving way to a standing opposition. This is often the case when the government does not immediately grasp the scale of the threat and public protests fizzle out, as if terrified by their own power.
Mubarak's options
Since the time of the pharaohs, power in Egypt has always rested on two pillars: the priests and the army. There are no priests now, only the army, and it will now decide the fate of President Mubarak. He has met with top military leaders, and the next few days should tell us if and when Mubarak will step down.
Ideally, Mubarak will make his decision before the presidential election set for September, only the second presidential election in the country's history. Before the first election in 2005, the president was elected by an obedient parliament. He should call an early election in one to three months to cut down on the opposition's time to prepare. After all, the opposition already has a potential candidate - former IAEA head Mohamed ElBaradei.
But few things work out ideally in the Middle East, and an orderly transition to a more democratic government is among the least likely scenarios.
Mubarak wants his son Gamal to eventually succeed him, but the army has already voiced its opposition to that idea. All Egyptian rulers since the coup led by Gamal Abdel Nasser in 1952 that overthrew King Farouk have been military officers, including Anwar Sadat and Hosni Mubarak. But Gamal is not an officer.
Behind the scenes, Mubarak could be trying to find a successor that is acceptable to the army and to negotiate the terms of his resignation. In the Middle East, this process is essential to ensure that you, your family and your assets will be safe. Some in Egypt are already calling for Mubarak to stand trial for the crimes he committed while in power.
Can one Nobel laureate help another?
Mubarak has appointed Omar Suleiman, the head of the country's intelligence services, as his vice president, and Aviation Minister Ahmed Shafiq as prime minister, but this will not extend his rule for long.
Rather, they have been selected in the event that the transition period lasts until the presidential election in September, during which time Mubarak's successor will be groomed for the post, allowing Mubarak to resign on his terms and save face.
Suleiman and Shafiq have not been implicated in a single corruption scandal, even though corruption in Egypt is as old as the pyramids. One of these men, or possibly Defense Minister Mohamed Hussein Tantawi, could be nominated for the presidency, unless Mubarak is forced to leave before September.
Last weekend saw a flurry of activity between Washington and Cairo. Obama spoke with Mubarak over the phone and Egypt's Military Chief of Staff Gen. Sami Annan returned to Cairo from a brief visit to Washington.
The Americans praised the professionalism of the Egyptian military but have not convinced them to surrender their president to an "orderly transition" during this window of opportunity. The White House has even come close to openly backing ElBaradei as an interim leader. It would be understandable that Obama, a Nobel Peace Prize winner, would feel affinity for his fellow laureate ElBaradei.
ElBaradei: pros and cons
ElBaradei has already reached out to the Egyptian army. He has said that "the army is part of Egypt" and that he would soon enter into talks with it. ElBaradei understands that the military is the guarantor of power in Egypt. Not to mention that it was the generals in Tunisia that convinced President Ben Ali to flee the country after the revolution.
ElBaradei suits the United States, Russia and Europe as an interim leader. But the attitude to him in Egypt is far from unanimous. He has lived abroad for decades and he was a relative latecomer to the uprising in Egypt.
One of Egypt's most famous political dissidents, Ayman Nour, the leader of the El Ghad (Tomorrow) party and Mubarak's main opponent in the 2005 election, has announced that "some politicians and forces joined the demonstrations too late, clearly wishing to ride the wave of public discontent."
Nour's words were clearly aimed at ElBaradei, and many people in Egypt share the sentiment. When ElBaradei arrived in Egypt, there were people among the crowd who shouted: "This is our revolution, not yours."
As for the army, it is worried by the fact that the radical Muslim Brotherhood movement has expressed support for ElBaradei.
There is a third option, though: wait until the protests lose momentum, and suppress them and the opposition in one stroke. But this is unlikely. The protests have changed Egypt. The presidential election in September is now the most likely way out.
The views expressed in this article are the author's and do not necessarily represent those of RIA Novosti.
