The first month of 2011 was marked by large-scale anti-government protests in Tunisia and Egypt. Can we talk about a trend and can we expect new uprisings in other Arab countries? What are the common traits and what is the difference between the events in Tunisia and Egypt? Vasily Kuznetsov, PhD. in History, and Research Fellow at the Russian Academy of Sciences Institute of Oriental Studies shares his views on the present situation in the Arab world.
Samir Shakhbaz: Good afternoon, Vasily.
First Tunisia and now Egypt have been consumed by protests. Can you see a trend here, and do you think it’s possible that popular uprisings will soon engulf the entire Arab world, not only North Africa but the Middle East as well?
Vasily Kuznetsov: Yes, you can say that there is a trend here. There have been protests in Jordan and Yemen, and a series of self-immolations in Arab countries, for example in Algeria and even Mauritania.
The question is whether these mass protests will coalesce into a revolution. It is unlikely that things will go as far elsewhere as they have in Tunisia or Egypt.
Messages have been circulating on Facebook calling for mass demonstrations in Syria on February 5. But the Syrian regime is much tougher than the regimes in Tunisia or even Egypt. There will probably be a crackdown much more brutal than anything seen in Egypt or Tunisia.
Protests in one country usually trigger protests elsewhere, like a match that lights a bonfire. The protests in Egypt were a response to the Tunisian revolt, and now events in Egypt could inspire an uprising in another Arab country.
But our interpretation of the events should be rooted in the facts. Tunisian protesters were not just against the regime, they also wanted to establish a liberal-democratic government, while Egyptian protesters so far only want to topple Mubarak. It is not a fact that the Egyptians want a liberal democracy. There is still the Muslim Brotherhood, a very influential political force in Egypt.
Then there is Yemen, where the unrest was clearly stirred up by the events in Tunisia and Egypt, but a liberal democracy is just out of question there. Yemen is facing a changing of elites and a struggle between denominations and tribes. This is typical for a traditional society.
Samir Shakhbaz: Why did this happen now, in January 2011? Is this because people’s patience reached a breaking point, or was there some outside influence?
Vasily Kuznetsov: I don’t think there was any outside influence. These are two different situations, and we need to distinguish between them. The revolt in Tunisia started on December 17, 2010, when Mohamed Bouazizi set himself on fire in front of the administrative building in the city of Sidi Bouzid. This triggered the larger unrest. The reason people commit such acts is always the same – a feeling of social humiliation and a kind of resignation to reality. The entire society was affected by a kind of neurosis. Tunisians thought of themselves not as of Arabs but rather as of a Mediterranean nation. They compared their country with Spain, Greece and Italy. Many of them have been to Europe. The gap between the better life they envisioned for themselves and the reality inspired this wave of unrest.
But why did it happen now? It’s a good question. There is not a culture of political violence in Tunisia. Since it gained independence, there has been only one political murder in Tunisia, and even that one case remains unproved. In my opinion, the ruling elite was the crucial factor. The army essentially sided with the demonstrators, refusing to shoot at the crowd and offering no resistance, which allowed the situation to escalate. So the events in Tunisia were a result of a combination of psychological factors and a conflict between the army and the police on one side and the government on the other.
The situation in Egypt is completely different. It was clear that tensions were high there, and something like this was expected. Last autumn Egypt held parliamentary elections, where the opposition was suppressed. Although the Muslim Brotherhood is a banned organization, it ran candidates as independents in 2005, and they won 88 out of 450 parliamentary seats. This time they received no seats. Did the regime suddenly become popular? Were the people disappointed with the Muslim Brotherhood? No. Monitors reported widespread fraud in the election. Why was it rigged? Because disappointment and anti-government sentiment had grown even stronger? Because the elite was just going to replace Hosni Mubarak with Gamal Mubarak? These were the scenarios that were being discussed before the New Year. As we can see now, inner tensions and the example of the Tunisian uprising have led to these protests in Egypt. But their causes were different. In Tunisia they were social and psychological in nature, while in Egypt they were a result of economic problems and a deteriorating ruling elite.
Samir Shakhbaz: What can you say about the reaction of the international community to these events? Israel, which has issued several statements, seems to be the only country that is worried about Mubarak’s future. It’s really quite ridiculous. Russia, the United States and the rest are acting as impartial observers. They have expressed concern for human rights and have called on the parties to refrain from violence. But really they are just sitting back and waiting for something to happen.
Vasily Kuznetsov: There’s a famous quote by Roosevelt, “He may be a son of a bitch, but he’s our son of a bitch.” The international community has not been consistent on Arab regimes over the past decades. On the one hand, it has criticized Arab countries for violating human rights, authoritarianism, and so forth. And yet everybody knows what happened in Algeria. If not authoritarianism, then what will replace it? If you mess around with democracy in the Arab world, Islamists come to power. Authoritarianism turns out to be the lesser of two evils for these countries.
So, now Arab regimes are being toppled. No one has come to the defense of poor president Ben Ali. He is now vilified as a monster but this is an unfair characterization. His role in history of Tunisia is not so black and white. Most likely, if President Mubarak is put on trial, no one will fight for him.
The international community would very much like Arabs to sort out their problems themselves and set up a government they can negotiate and reach agreements with. If it has to be an Islamist regime, it should be moderate. In fact, nobody cares if it will respect human rights. Of course, it’s preferable that they be respected, but at the end of the day international security is more important.
Samir Shakhbaz: Vasily, thank you very much for sharing your time and your thoughts.
