What happened in Tunisia and Egypt? Was it a victory for Islamists or liberalism? Iranians who are planning to take to the streets of Tehran this Friday are divided on this point, but the answer is crucial for Iran's future.
Given the divides in Iranian society, spurring on a new revolution in Iran is a dangerous gamble. But a revolution is exactly what Washington wants, even if it endangers the opposition movement and the interests of Iran's neighbors and partners.
The wrong kind of demonstration
There is a powerful conservative strain in Iranian society, so there will likely be a strong showing during Friday's government-backed rally.
The rally will mark an important event in Iran's history. On February 11, 1979, the Iranian army announced that it would not prevent revolutionaries from overthrowing the shah. Thirty-two years later to the day, Mubarak resigned, ceding control to a military council. In 1979, Islamic, socialist, communist and liberal forces joined the wave of spontaneous student demonstrations in Iran to overthrow the shah. But the Islamic forces rose to the top after the revolution.
Iran's spiritual leader Ayatollah Khamenei has cast the events in Tunisia and Egypt as a continuation of Iran's 1979 Islamic Revolution. Khamenei said before Mubarak's resignation that the events in Egypt signified "the resurgence of Islam" and denounced the Egyptian president as a "traitor."
A small pro-government demonstration was held Wednesday near the College of Fine Arts in Tehran to mark the death of a student killed during anti-government protests on Monday. The student was killed by a stray shot fired by a member of the opposition who opened fire without provocation. The funeral was accompanied by more clashes between young pro- and anti-government protesters.
Who will take power in Egypt?
Every year since 1979, Iranians have held celebrations of the Islamic Revolution lasting from February till April. This year they have coincided with the historical change sweeping the region, and the Iranian authorities have used this as an opportunity to congratulate their Sunni brothers in Tunisia and Egypt. Iran's Shiite theocracy hopes to find common ground with their fellow Muslims in opposition to the United States and Israel.
Relations between Iran and Egypt have been strained since 1979. That year, the Islamic Revolution forced out the American-backed shah, while Egypt, a friend of the shah, signed a U.S.-brokered peace agreement with Israel.
Several years later, a street in Tehran was named after Lt. Khalid al-Islambuli, the Egyptian army officer and member of the radical al-Jihad organization who assassinated President Anwar Sadat in October 1981. Standing next to Sadat that fateful day was his deputy, Hosni Mubarak, who carried on Sadat's policy of peace with Israel.
The Iranian authorities say they would like to restore relations with Egypt now that it has overthrown Mubarak. Iran is hoping that Egypt's new government will back out of the treaty with Israel, which is unpopular among Egyptians.
The courage of the Iranians
The Iranian opposition has also cheered the Egyptian revolution, but for different reasons. In Egypt, the opposition sees its own battle against corruption, nepotism and voter fraud.
The so-called Green Movement, led by former presidential candidates Mehdi Karroubi and Mir Hossein Mousavi, is out for revenge after losing the disputed elections in summer 2009, in which Mahmoud Ahmadinejad received 30% more votes than Mousavi.
Opposition rallies held in support of the revolutions in Egypt and Tunisia the other day turned into protests against the government. Several people were killed and wounded in Tehran, Isfahan and other cities in clashes between protesters and police.
Anti-government protesters could turn out this Friday, which is a cause for concern to the government. But there is an upside: the United States has played into the government's hands by inserting itself into Iranian politics at exactly the wrong time.
Washington has openly expressed its support for the Iranian opposition. It has encouraged protesters, giving the impression that it is, in fact, orchestrating the protests.
U.S. President Barack Obama has said his hope and expectation "is that we're going to continue to see the people of Iran have the courage to be able to express their yearning for greater freedom and a more representative government."
Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said that Iranians "deserve to have the same rights that they saw being played out in Egypt and are part of their own birthright."
These statements have compromised the Iranian opposition. U.S. support will only hinder its preparations for the 2013 presidential elections. The worst thing for the Iranian opposition is to be seen as a U.S. puppet.
Iran and the United States have been enemies since 1979, when Washington imposed economic sanctions on post-revolutionary Iran. U.S. troops are currently deployed in neighboring Iraq and Afghanistan. Both the Iranian government and Iranian voters understand the danger of the U.S. military presence on their borders.
The United States would be better off focusing on North Africa, where it is rapidly losing allies, for the truth is that only authoritarian military regimes could keep Tunisia and Egypt in the West's sphere of influence. Neither Islamic radicals nor moderate socialists, nor even young bloggers in the region have any affection for the United States and its closest ally in the region, Israel.
Tehran stands to gain
Promoting instability in Shiite-dominated Iran is a risky game given the unrest that continues to roil the Middle East. The virus of anti-government protests could paralyze the region for a long time to come.
Protesters have been killed in Bahrain, another of Iran's neighbors, during demonstrations held this week by Shiite Muslims, who feel oppressed by the Sunni minority in power. Bahrain could become another Shiite-dominated neighbor of Iran. Shiites have already gained political power in Iraq after the overthrow of Saddam Hussein in 2003, and Hezbollah has grown stronger in Lebanon.
Syria is also an ally of Iran, and we are seeing unexpected alliances between Iran and Sunni-dominated Turkey, Hamas and Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood.
The Arab regimes loyal to the United States could be replaced with elected governments that are friendly or sympathetic to Iran. The United States seems to understand this. The recent statements by U.S. politicians in support of the opposition in Iran could be a reaction to Iran's growing influence in the region, or it could be the result of President Obama's idealistic view of the middle-class unrest in the Middle East and North Africa.
Israel, which knows its neighbors in the region better than the United States, is far more wary of the popular movements.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu mentioned the threat from Iran in his speech in parliament in early February. And Martin Indyk, a former U.S. ambassador to Israel, has warned of the danger of rising oil prices: "Hundred dollar-a-barrel oil for the Iranians does a lot to take down the pain of the sanctions that we're putting on them, so they must be sitting there rubbing their hands with glee at the moment."
Yelena Suponina is a political analyst specializing in the Middle East; she holds a degree in philosophy.
The views expressed in this article are the author's and do not necessarily represent those of RIA Novosti.
