The revolt in Libya has reached the point where the overthrow of Muammar Gaddafi appears to be the only viable solution. Outside military intervention is all but inevitable, be it direct or in the guise of "humanitarian aid" to the opposition and rebel forces.
The United States, Britain and France are openly preparing for a NATO operation in Libya. The country with the largest oil reserves in Africa simply cannot be left teetering on the brink of civil war.
The clashes between the amorphous Libyan opposition and forces loyal to Gaddafi cannot yet be called an all-out civil war. The rebels do not have a governing center or a leader, and they lack the weapons, training and numbers to overthrow the dictator.
Terminal case
In an interview with BBC, ABC and the Sunday Times, Gaddafi vowed to remain in power, and denied that the demonstrations are aimed against his rule.
"No-one is against us. Against us for what? Because I'm not a president. They love me. All my people are with me, they love me all. They will die to protect me, my people," he said from the capital, Tripoli, the last major city he controls after two-weeks of revolt that began in the eastern coastal city of Benghazi.
Gaddafi also claimed that al-Qaeda is the driving force behind the unrest. "It's al-Qaeda, they went into military bases and seized arms and they're terrorizing the people," the colonel said.
The interview showed a man who has clearly lost touch with reality.
Economic sanctions have been introduced against his regime. Arms supplies to Libya have been banned, and the assets of Gaddafi and 25 members of his family have been frozen. The international community is now coordinating a possible military intervention.
U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has discussed the possibility with her colleagues from Britain, France, Germany and Italy during talks in Geneva. "No option is off the table. That of course includes a no-fly zone," she said.
NATO is holding military consultations. Nicolas Sarkozy has called for an EU emergency summit meeting, which may be held on March 4. So far, only France, Spain, Italy and Britain have backed the initiative. Other countries say that such a meeting would be pointless because military decisions will be taken elsewhere and there are already two upcoming EU summit meetings this month, on March 11 and 24.
"Humanitarian corridors" for military aid
A large-scale military intervention in Libya naturally requires the approval of the UN Security Council. But Russia and China are so far opposed to intervention.
Consultations in the Security Council are being held almost around the clock. If Gaddafi continues to use heavy weaponry and combat aircraft against disconnected rebel groups and demonstrators in cities, Russia and China may approve a limited intervention, for example, in the form of a humanitarian mission.
It is rumored that NATO is creating "humanitarian corridors" across Egypt and Tunisia and will send troops to protect them. There are also suggestions that these corridors could be used to deliver more than just humanitarian aid.
Any intervention will begin with the declaration of a no-fly zone over Libya. What this means is that NATO will shoot down any Libyan aircraft that violates the order, as it did in Yugoslavia in 1999 and in Kuwait in 1991. U.S. President Barack Obama, French President Nicolas Sarkozy and British Prime Minister David Cameron have already discussed a plan for a military no-fly zone over the North African country.
If recent history is any guide, the United States, Britain and other NATO countries have likely already sent special reconnaissance groups to Libya. This is what the U.S. did prior to entering Kuwait in 1991, Afghanistan in 2001 and Iraq in 2003. Several U.S. and British warships have been rerouted to Libya in case a "humanitarian rescue action" is approved. The United States has two carrier-led groups in the Gulf, which can be directed against Libya. The Pentagon said it is regrouping them, just in case.
Close the oil tap
Allowing Libya to slide into civil war is very dangerous. Apart from a humanitarian crisis (over 100,000 Libyans have already crossed into neighboring countries), unrest in Libya could lead to an oil crisis. The rapid growth of oil prices caused by the recent unrest in the region could prompt a new economic crisis.
Libya, a member of the oil cartel OPEC, has 41.5 billion barrels of oil, the largest reserves in Africa and the ninth largest in the world. At the current export rate, these reserves are projected to last for about 60 years. About 80% of Libyan oilfields are located in the Sirt Basin in the country's west.
Nearly all experts believe that Libya's oil resources are much larger than its proven reserves because only 25% of its territory has been explored. Before the uprising, which has cut oil production in half, Libya produced about 1.8 to 2 million barrels a day and planned to increase production to 3 million by 2013.
Not all countries in Europe, let alone the world, depend on Libya for oil, but Italy, Germany, Spain, the United States and France import considerable amounts of Libyan oil. Italy buys 38% of Libya's oil exports, Germany 19%, Spain 8%, the United States 7% and France 6%.
Libya is also the fourth largest gas producing country in Africa after Nigeria, Algeria and Egypt, but again, experts believe its gas resources are much larger than its reserves.
After the UN lifted sanctions on Libya in 2003 and the United States followed suit in 2004, the leading western companies resumed business there. Exploration and production licenses for onshore and offshore fields in Libya are currently held by Britain's BP and Shell; U.S. companies Chevron, ConocoPhillips and Occidental Petroleum; France's Total; China's CNPC; Italy's Eni; Norway's Norsk Hydro; and the Malaysian company Petronas. Canadian, Brazilian, South African, German, Indonesian, Arab and other production and refining companies, including Ukraine's Naftogaz, are also working in Libya.
On top of that, Libya has amassed oil revenues under the Libyan Investment Authority (LIA), a state investment corporation with assets worth $70 billion.
The EU's asset freeze does not include LIA's funds, which is logical because the organization has been actively investing in EU countries, primarily in Italy, Libya's former colonizer, after the sanctions were lifted in 2003 and 2004.
Libya is the largest individual shareholder of Italy's UniCredit bank (7%). It also owns 2% of the car manufacturer Fiat, 2% of the aerospace giant Finmeccanica and 7.5% of Italy's famous football club Juventus.
In Britain, LIA has interests in the Royal Bank of Scotland (the lender is 84% owned by the British government, making it and Gaddafi co-investors) and 3% of the publishing company Pearson, which prints the prestigious British newspaper, The Financial Times.
In Russia, LIA owns 1% of RusAl, the world's largest aluminum producer.
These investments have become an organic part of the global financial system. They cannot simply be amputated, and so a suitable replacement for the dictator must be found without delay. This is exactly what the world's leading powers seem to be doing. Gaddafi could be gone in as little as a week.
The views expressed in this article are the author's and may not necessarily represent those of RIA Novosti.
