While a civil war accompanied by regular NATO airstrikes continues in Libya, massive opposition protests continue to break out in Syria. Can we expect the same scenario in the country that used to be one of the most stable in the region? Were Syrian authorities too late to use force? Viktor Nadein-Rayevsky, a senior fellow at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations of the Russian Academy of Sciences claims the Syrian government must take into consideration the Libyan experience and it has to take serious steps to avoid a civil war.
Could you please comment on what is happening in Libya right now? I think it’s more in the nature of a circus than a spectacle.
It was possible to predict that the military operation would not achieve any meaningful results. Russia did not support the resolution of the UN Security Council, but neither did it block it, and this may be the most sensible position. At any rate, it allows us to criticize the coalition’s actions in Libya. The coalition initially spoke about a no-fly zone over Libya, but now it is planning to liquidate Muammar Gaddafi. Quite a democratic approach, isn’t it? On the whole, this operation seems to make a mockery of the protection of civilians and the democratic process under the assumption that in order to protect civilians, it is necessary to kill their leader and all the people around him. It's certainly a strange approach, but that's where we are.
I was always stunned by the fact that Gaddafi shared Libya's oil and gas revenues with the people. They have free education and free medical care. Reports from Benghazi depict the modern medical equipment that is being used. They also have cheap gasoline and affordable housing – just work and you have it all. However, nobody wanted to work while these good conditions were still being created. A million and a half guest workers were involved in oil and gas production, construction, and other difficult occupations, but Libyans themselves were reluctant to take them. Al-Qaeda, domestic Salafites, and tribes were fueling social fires. The tribes were displeased that oil revenues were being shared indiscriminately with all citizens. They wanted a bigger piece of the pie for their leaders, and this played a role in their involvement in the conflict.
Many analysts say that both Mubarak and Gaddafi made the same mistake: they did not use force at the right time. Now we are witnessing very complicated events in Syria. Has the Syrian president used force appropriately?
I think he was also a little late. Now, he has probably resorted to an inadequate use of force, and this is what the West is criticizing him for. But the most interesting point is that the West is afraid to rock the boat because nobody knows who would replace the current leadership.
But hasn’t Hillary Clinton called the Syrian president a reformer?
He was at one time when he dared to launch a number of reforms. But, first of all, he did so too late. Second, it is unclear who will come to power. Sunnis form the majority of the population, and there are many Christians, but the power belongs to the Alawis. The current leadership gave limited power to the Sunnis, Druze, and Christians after deciding to involve the representatives of different religions in the government. This did not apply to the Kurds, who were not even issued Syrian passports. Now this process has started, but I think somewhat belatedly. In a nutshell, the Syrian president was a bit late in all respects.
However, the government’s actions are very severe. It is enough to see the methods it is using to suppress the opposition in Deraa by arresting and imprisoning people. Let’s wait for the results. In Algeria, the authorities acted in much the same manner and largely suppressed the opposition. According to different estimates, 17,000 of 20,000 insurgents were killed, not counting civilians who took hits from both sides.
The main thing Syria has to do is avoid a civil war. Time will tell whether it will happen or not. The opposition keeps emphasizing that they are not Salafites and that the current events are not of a religious character, but the movement includes Salafites, al-Qaeda members, democrats, and even female fighters for equality, to name but a few. Clearly, these groups contain absolutely different organizational structures and agendas. When they come to victory, they start dividing the power and quarreling with one another, as is now the case in Egypt. To all appearances, the Muslim opposition in Syria will act in much the same way. They adhere to strict rules and set rigid ultimatums.
Thank you very much for your time and comments.
