Moskovskiye Novosti
Abkhazia holds early presidential elections
Abkhazia is holding early presidential elections today, following the death of President Sergei Bagapsh in May. Observers have a sense of deja vu – just like seven years ago, Moscow is not backing the favorite. Abkhazia is probably the only region in the Russian sphere of influence where the elections are a real race with an unpredictable result. Could the elections be a rerun of the last elections, which brought Abkhazia to the brink of civil war?
The elections of autumn 2004 nearly tore Abkhaz society in two. One half supported Prime Minister Khadzhimba, who the first Abkhazian president Vladislav Ardzinba saw as his successor, and who had Russia's blessing. The other half backed Sergei Bagapsh, who campaigned on a platform of regime change. Russia’s only means of supporting its favored candidate was to close the Abkhazian-Russian border at the height of the Abkhaz tangerine export season, only heightening anti-Moscow feeling. The two opponents reached an 11th hour agreement just as their respective armed supporters, many of whom were veterans of the 1992-1993 Georgian-Abkhazian War, took up firing positions in the center of Sukhumi.
One of the three candidates today, Sergei Shamba, has hired prominent Russian electioneers such as Modest Kolerov, a former official with the Russian presidential administration. For many, this is reminiscent of 2004, when Russia helped Khadzhimba. Another candidate, acting Abkhazian president Alexander Ankvab, is said to have recently met in Sochi with Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, and both men were satisfied with what transpired at the meeting.
The main election scandal played out a week before the vote, when someone organized for a video in which former Georgian defense minister and Georgian-Abkhazian war veteran Tengiz Ketovani accused Ankvab of ties to Georgian intelligence to be screened publicly. Shamba and his staff flatly denied any involvement. Former National Security Council Secretary and Abkhaz intellectual Stanislav Lakoba said that this amounted to a sixth assassination attempt on Ankvab, who has survived five assassination attempts since 2005.
“First, they attempted literal assassination – now character assassination,” he said.
Because of his police background, Ankvab has a strongman image and in looks he bears a resemblance to Anthony Hopkins. Many in Abkhazia believe that it was Ankvab who helped Bagapsh to win both previous elections.
“Ankvab would run a tight ship, overseeing officials at all levels of the pyramid extending out beneath him,” said Abkhazian expert Roin Agrba. “This would slow development, but it is likely to eliminate corruption. Ankvab has no family members in politics. Shamba is a softer leader, and those who may see Abkhazia as a venue for money laundering or simply a financial black hole would view him as the preferred option.”
While Ankvab and Shamba are busy fighting each other, Khajimba is gaining ground. Despite the harsh tone adopted by Shamba’s supporters, few in Abkhazia expect a military escalation. Nevertheless, many Abkhazians believe a second round is highly probable.
Argumenty i Fakty
Interior Ministry fears nationalist riots over Mirzayev case
Moscow’s law enforcement agencies fear that the death of Muscovite Ivan Agafonov in a fight with Dagestani athlete Rasul Mirzayev could provoke mass disorder. The Interior Ministry press service says football fans have been warned that disorder will not be tolerated after the Spartak-CSKA game on Sunday.
The ministry’s press service said they had asked leaders of fan groups and youth organizations to talk to their members to prevent any possible unrest. If this fails, and there is unrest, they will face “serious problems,” the warning ran. Mirzayev’s girlfriend was taken into state protection after she received telephone threats.
The police also intend to prevent a vigil being held today in memory of Agafonov.
According to Kommersant, both clubs’ fans have agreed to put aside their longstanding rivalry to stage a march along Komsomolsky Prospekt carrying posters and banners daubed with nationalist slogans. The rally was planned in protest against Mirzayev’s possible release on bail.
On Tuesday, however, the court revoked bail putting Mirzayev back in detention through October 17. Analysts believe this decision was intended to placate the ultra-right. The release of five men from the Caucasus, accused of shooting a Spartak fan dead in a brawl in late 2010, sparked riots in Manezhnaya Square on December 11, 2010.
Earlier this week, the security service received information from several sources that ultranationalists were planning to exploit Agafonov’s death in a brawl to their own ends. Posters and banners bearing ultranationalist slogans have already been found and confiscated.
The tragic incident took place on August 13 outside the Garage nightclub where Agafonov, a Moscow resident, was flirting with Mirzayev’s girlfriend. Mirzayev, a martial arts champion, quarreled with Agafonov, eventually hitting him in the face. Agafonov hit his head on a grating as he fell and died in a hospital four days later. When Mirzayev learned what had happened, he went to the police to turn himself in.
Some analysts believe police fears to be exaggerated. Alexander Verkhovsky, head of the Sova anti-fascist and human rights center, pointed out that Agafonov was not an ultranationalist, nor was he even a football fan, which should make it harder to rouse fans to riot in his memory. However, he did not rule out the possibility of attempts to provoke some unrest.
Moskovsky Komsomolets
Progress failure: Assessing Russia’s track record in space
Until now, Russia has led the world in servicing space stations, with up to 40% of all launches worldwide carried out by Russian rockets. The former head of the Roscosmos space agency, Anatoly Perminov, always spoke of that with pride.
But its current head, Vladimir Popovkin, believes there is nothing to boast about, as launches are the least profitable segment of the market. It is “dirty work” accounting for 10% to 15% of the program value.
When Russia’s Soyuz or heavy Proton rockets carry a European satellite into orbit, the partners pay between $80 million and $120 million for the service. But one European telecommunications satellite costs around $300 to $400 million euros.
Russia cannot produce such satellites. It can only put them into orbit. The country lacks the technology to manufacture spacecraft that can function for 15 years.
This is why many view the recent crash of Russia’s Soyuz-U rocket as the beginning of the end – Russia abandoning its last space niche. So what does this recent failure mean for Russia?
First, it has called in question the launch of the next Glonass military satellite from Plesetsk. Its carrier rocket is Soyuz-2, an upgraded model in the Soyuz family. It is manufactured at the same plant in Samara as all Soyuz launch vehicles. Now specialists are to decide whether or not to proceed with the Glonass launch.
Second, one of the modifications of the same Soyuz-2 rocket is ready to launch the Galileo spacecraft, a European satellite navigation system similar to Russia’s Glonass and the U.S. GPS, from the Courou Space Center in French Guiana. Blast-off was initially slated for last December, but was delayed by the European side. Now there may well be another delay, this time because of the Russians.
Third, there will have to be staff changes in the space industry. Many experts believe it is high time to do away with the atmosphere of all-permissiveness and complacency created by former Roscosmos head Perminov. He headed the organization for more than seven years and clearly overstayed his tour of duty.
Everyone expected President Dmitry Medvedev to sack Perminov when three Glonass satellites fell into the ocean last December. But Perminov survived together with all the high-ranking officials responsible.
A new misfortune struck last February: when the Geo-IK-2 was put into the wrong orbit, the Defense Ministry was left without a modern geodetic network. But even that did not result in a reshuffle.
It was not until late April that Vladimir Popovkin was appointed Roscosmos’ head. The current situation is certain to speed up some serious personnel decisions. Apparently Popovkin will also tackle his deputies and company directors. Recently, for example, he decided that a company head cannot draw more than five times the average salary at his enterprise. Earlier, the gap had been truly cosmic. It now looks as if the space industry is at last in for some massive changes.
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