Moskovskiye Novosti
More funds needed for HIV prevention in Russia
As much as 250 million of the 400 million rubles allocated this year for HIV prevention have returned to the federal budget, although the disease is spreading in Russia and spending on prevention should be increased, said Vadim Pokrovsky, head of the federal center for AIDS prevention and treatment.
Pokrovsky, a member of the Russian Academy of Sciences, hinted, at a conference of regional AIDS prevention centers in Suzdal, that the health ministry has made a mess of the program. It has issued only 150 million rubles through a highly complicated process to non-profit organizations working with risk groups. Furthermore, the program’s concept is invalid, the scientist said, as it is impossible to take all of the stipulated preventive measures within two months of receiving the funding. “The effectiveness of this program cannot be assessed correctly any sooner than five years,” Pokrovsky told Moskovskiye Novosti.
Experts and officials agree that the funding for AIDS prevention should be increased. Russia’s chief sanitary official, Gennady Onishchenko, said 24% more HIV patients were registered in January-October 2011 than in the same period of 2010. The yearend results will only be summed up next spring, but it is already clear that the number of new HIV infections will exceed 60,000.
Russia has approximately 637,000 HIV patients, or 0.4% of the country’s population. The number of AIDS related deaths reported since 1985 has exceeded 100,000. The demographics of the epidemic have changed in recent years – HIV is no longer just the social virus of homosexuals and drug addicts. In 2011, 64.8% of new HIV infections in women were traced to heterosexual relations, while 73.2% of new male HIV patients are intravenous drug users.
These changes show that Russians’ AIDS awareness is very low, and show that prevention is the crucial part of any program to combat the disease, Onishchenko said.
“Onishchenko hinted that the epidemic has not stabilized and, given our attitude toward prevention, will keep growing,” Andrei Zlobin, head of the public organization of HIV patients, said after the conference. Vadim Pokrovsky promised to analyze the proposals from the AIDS centers within ten days and to submit the results to the consumer rights authority.
The academician has proposed signing AIDS prevention contracts with non-profit organizations for three years and longer and transferring the authority to choose these NGOs from the federal to the regional level. “There are region specific issues with the AIDS/HIV epidemic,” he said. “The bulk of new patients in St. Petersburg are drug users, while in Moscow the infection is mostly transmitted heterosexually.” It would also be easier for regions to purchase test kits. “This year, centralized HIV kit supplies only reached the regions by the middle of the fall,” he said.
Kommersant
Out of focus
Many Moscow traffic cameras are not working. Apparently, two-thirds of Moscow’s traffic cameras are not in working order. The city of Moscow had planned to use 150 cameras to record traffic violations. But the State Inspection for Road Traffic Safety/Traffic Police (GIBDD) lacks the capability to process the data. Most cameras are therefore only monitoring traffic.
In all, 150 automated cameras to record traffic violations have been installed around Moscow, said sources at the city’s Road Traffic Organization Center. In this respect, the city has fulfilled its 2011 plan to institute an “intelligent” transport control network. Plans also call for traffic signals which can automatically adjust timing sequences depending on traffic density, as well as electronic information boards warning drivers about traffic jams. In 2011, Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin allocated 6.3 billion rubles ($202 million) for the program.
The first automated cameras were installed last summer, but the first citations weren’t mailed to violators until October 1 when the GIBDD’s Center for Automatic Traffic Violation Recording was commissioned. Although the cameras belong to the city, the GIBDD is the only department authorized to issue traffic tickets based on photos. Traffic inspectors also work at this center, which at this point has issued 78,300 traffic tickets in two months. Most violations (75,100) involved excess speed. In all, 70,100 citations were issued for exceeding the speed limit by 20-40 kph. An additional 250 tickets were issued to drivers speeding at over 120 kph. In all, 3,200 drivers were fined for entering designated transit lanes. In October, violators received 20,000 tickets worth 6.8 million rubles ($218,000). The fines totalled 17 million rubles ($545,000) in November.
More traffic tickets will be issued if this system is activated completely. The GIBDD is still issuing citations based on the data from only 50 of the 150 cameras. A law enforcement officer said it lacked the personnel and data-processing equipment to do more. Two-thirds of the cameras still simply “watch” local traffic. The situation will change in early 2012 after the Road Traffic Organization Center and the Center for Automatic Registration of Traffic Violations relocate to a new building. The number of processors will be increased to 200. But also, 2,000, rather than 800, cameras will be installed in 2012-2013.
Local traffic authorities may also face a new challenge. In late November, Sergei Sobyanin proposed improving the data review process. “Instead of endlessly sifting through papers, we need to introduce software to identify violators. Given the expected volumes, we would have to hire an entire army of processors,” Sobyanin noted. The Mayor suggested that the processors handle only contentious cases involving special-purpose vehicles and those with dirty license plates. Moscow’s traffic police chief, Alexander Ilyin, said he would think it over but admits that there could be problems with this approach. “If we make a mistake [by removing the processors], then we will have to hire a lot of lawyers to defend our interests in court,” he added.
Gazeta.ru
Worst forecast for Russia
Due to the eurozone debt crisis, Russia's economic growth will likely slow to 3.5% next year, the IMF said, offering the worst forecast compared with other international institutions’ estimates of 3.9%-4.1%.
“The Russian economy has broadly recovered from the 2008-09 crisis, but spillovers from the euro area crisis cloud growth prospects,” the IMF's mission chief for Russia, Juha Kahkonen said.
The IMF also urged the Russian government to prepare “contingency plans” in the event that the eurozone crisis deepens and spills into other countries.
This “could trigger a global downturn, translating into lower commodity prices and lower nonoil exports, and an abrupt freeze in global bank financing and liquidity,” Kahkonen said. This means Russia could slide into a recession.
Although the slump may not be as deep as in 2009 when the economy was overheated, Russia is not cushioned for a shock this time, Kahkonen warned. Russia had accumulated a generous rainy day fund before 2008. He urged the Russian government to build up reserves again saving any budget surplus that might arise from high oil prices.
IMF experts believe Russia should tighten fiscal policies by curtailing subsidies, transfers, and tax exemptions. “Over the medium term, fiscal policy should be anchored on the currently suspended nonoil deficit target of 4.7% of GDP,” the IMF mission statement reads.
The IMF is probably suggesting a worst case 2012 scenario for Russia. The UN baseline scenario includes 3.9% growth; the World Bank sees a 3.8% rise; and the OECD, 4.1%. The Russian government’s official GDP projection uses a 3.7% growth figure for next year.
Analysts believe the International Monetary Fund is being realistic. “Even if oil remains stable at $100, we’ll see a slowdown because the low base effect wears off,” Troika Dialog economist Anton Struchenevsky explained. “For example, Russian agriculture grew by over 15% this year, which happened after a slump in 2010. This low base effect will no longer work in 2012, so mathematically we’ll see a slowdown to 3% or 4%.”
“Growth could slow to 3.1% if it is further constrained by GDP slowdowns in the United States and EU,” said Yulia Tseplyayeva from BNP Paribas. However, if oil prices remain high, she hopes Russia won’t enter a recession. Developed countries are expected to introduce so called quantitative easing programs to avoid a worst-case scenario, she added.
Deutsche Bank sounds slightly more optimistic, seeing Russia’s GDP grow by 4.5% this year and by 4.6% the next, based on high oil prices – about $115 per barrel – and greater investment. “This is an encouraging variable, considering the recent capital outflow which will likely reach $70 billion by yearend,” the bank’s chief economist in Russia, Yaroslav Lisovolik, said.
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