The high-profile trial of feminist punk group Pussy Riot has dominated both Russian and international headlines this month, revealing an increasingly torn Russian society amid almost unprecedented cries for justice from the West.
But for this reason, some might say August just isn’t what it used to be.
In post-Soviet Russia, the late summer month – known locally as “Black August” – has traditionally been one of disaster and despair, bringing with it everything from explosions and wars to financial crises and wildfires.
First, there was the attempted coup in August 1991 by Communist hardliners against Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev, which marked the beginning of the end for the Soviet Union – an event which for many today is still among the most painful of their lives.
Then, in 1998, the Russian government defaulted on its foreign and domestic debt, leading to drastic drop in the ruble’s value and ushering in a financial crisis which took years – and, arguably, an iron-fisted leader – to overcome.
The following year, Islamic insurgents led by Chechen and Arab warlords Shamil Basayev and Khattab invaded the North Caucasian republic of Dagestan and helped launch the devastating second Chechen war, the effects of which explain much of today’s ongoing turmoil in the region.
Besides the deadly sinking of the Kursk nuclear submarine in 2000, which killed 118 sailors, there was the fire inside Moscow’s iconic Ostankino television and radio tower the same year, which killed three people, as well as the two passenger planes blown up by Chechen terrorists in 2004 that killed 89.
Perhaps among the better known August catastrophes was the 2008 war over the breakaway republic of South Ossetia between Russia and Georgia, which drastically damaged relations between the two states and left scores of civilians dead.
In 2009, 74 people died in an accident in eastern Siberia’s Sayano-Shushenskaya Dam, and the following year, Moscow and much of western Russia was invaded by massive clouds of toxic smoke – the result of wildfires and burning peat bogs across the provinces.
In short, August typically hasn’t been easy on a Russia still coming to grips with its unceremonious exit from once being one of the world’s two superpowers.
This year, however, things may be changing, as August 2012 seems all about what experts say is a different kind of disaster: a political one – and for the Kremlin itself.
As the three women of Pussy Riot prepare to face their verdict on Friday, which could land them in prison for up to seven years on charges of hooliganism stemming from an irreverent, anti-Putin “punk prayer” in Moscow’s Christ the Savior Cathedral in February, analysts in Russia and abroad are pointing to a political quagmire for the authorities.
They say the Kremlin faces an array of options that will only make things worse: either release them and alienate President Vladimir Putin’s conservative and religious support base, or jail them and risk an even more emboldened opposition movement.
Barring any unforeseen events, the Russian public may be spared this month from a tragedy that costs human lives – and instead bear witness to what Russia-watchers say may be a serious blow to Russia’s international image.
What’s more, there may be a paradigm shift in the works for Russia’s traditional schedule of disasters.
Last month – July – saw one of the deadliest natural disasters to hit Russia in recent years, when at least 170 were killed in devastating floods in the southern Russian city of Krymsk. The incident helped consolidate anger at the authorities, who were accused of negligence and covering up the true death toll.
July 2011, meanwhile, saw the sinking of the river cruise ship Bulgaria on the Volga River, in which at least 129 travelers were killed. It remains Russia’s largest ship disaster since the Soviet era.
Depending on Friday’s verdict, as well as the subsequent public reaction, this August may also prove to be one for the record books – just in a different way.
