MOSCOW, November 13 (RIA Novosti) – Russia’s GDP growth is likely to remain below this year’s goal of 1.8 percent, Russia’s Economic Development Minister Alexei Ulyukayev said Wednesday.
The Federal Statistics Service said Tuesday that Russia’s GDP had grown 1.2 percent on a year earlier in the third quarter of 2013, the same pace as in the previous three months. In order to attain the annual target of 1.8 percent, GDP would have to grow at the improbable rate of 3 percent in October-December.
“It is highly likely that annual GDP growth will in fact be lower than the current forecast of 1.8 percent,” Ulyukayev said. He said the final figure would be 1.5-1.6 percent, bringing the government forecast into line with that of the International Monetary Fund, which in October revised its earlier 2013 growth prediction of 2.5 percent down to 1.5 percent.
The ministry has already revised downward its GDP growth forecasts twice this year. Late last year, it expected 2013 growth to be 3.6 percent, but that figure was slashed to 2.4 percent in April and again to 1.8 percent in September.
The minister said that the inflation rate would be slightly higher this year than the 2013 target of 5-6 percent.
The IMF’s annual World Economic Outlook published in October said that the Russian economy has managed to grow on the back of rising oil prices and by using up spare capacity, but that this formula will no longer work.
The current economic slowdown in Russia, the worst since the 2009 recession, has forced the government to support a series of budget spending cuts that are likely to come into effect next year.
