MOSCOW, April 4 (RIA Novosti), Lyudmila Chernova - Quebec's ruling Parti Québécois will lose its bid to form a majority government solely due to its fascination with independence, Dan Delmar, the managing partner of Provocateur Communication, told RIA Novosti Thursday.
"We are in a situation where the current government started out very popular, almost on the brink of having a majority government, but then sort of imploded and diminished because of the talks about sovereignty, which are not really gelling with the population in Quebec," Mr. Delmar said.
Election fever has been building up for the past few days as the minority PQ party has pushed for Quebec to seek independence from Canada. In March, the separatist party's Pauline Marois announced that her cabinet had passed a decree paving the way towards independence.
Delmar said the upcoming election could follow one of three potential scenarios, with a Liberal coalition defeating the separatists being the likeliest outcome.
"The most likely one is a Liberal minority government with the opposition CAQ holding a balance of power. These are two federalist and center right parties that would control Quebec," the analyst said.
Delmar said a Liberal majority government was a second option, as they have been gaining in polls. "Their win would mean a lot of stability for Quebec in terms of the national question, and there would be no referendum. And surely that would mean closer ties to Canada and a less confrontational approach," Delmar asserted.
A PQ minority government is seen by the analyst as a third possible scenario. "It would mean another emphasis on the Charter of Values, which they call a secularism charter, and more talks about language legislation as well as a referendum," he added.
While there are four major parties, for decades the battle for power in Quebec has been between the Liberals, who want to stay in Canada, and PQ, who want to separate from Canada. Many surveys suggest that about two thirds of Quebecers object to sovereignty and will not support a referendum.
"The population is crystal clear on that question. They are against nationalism, and certainly not interested in ethnic nationalism, which PQ has been pushing for the last year and a half. It's not even debatable in Quebec at this point, so the project is not going anywhere," Delmar stated.
This means the Liberal Party has been set up for a resurgence, the analyst suggested. "Despite the fact that the previous liberal government had all kinds of accusations of corruption surrounding it, they seem to be making a comeback," he said.
Delmar called this election very complicated and divisive because of a strong emphasis on identity and culture, the protection of the French language as well as issues concerning immigrants and ethnic integration.
He also noted that the election is probably the most important since 1995, when the last referendum on sovereignty was held. "The PQ government has been very unclear about whether or not it wants to call another referendum in the coming years, so the population is understandably very confused, and very annoyed with the government," Delmar said.
The analyst pointed out that Canada's breakup was a very important issue for residents, and they are asking questions which are not being answered, which only fuels controversy.
"We had a student protest in 2012. Now we have the Charter of Values, and the evidence used to support it is flimsy and dishonest at best. It's a shame that we are having such a divisive debate, and Quebec's ethnics are unfortunately suffering because of that," Delmar said.
