The biggest threat to Scotland's European Union membership is not the independence referendum in September, but the vote on EU membership, expected in 2017, former Labour First Minister of Scotland Henry McLeish told RIA Novosti.
A row erupted between Scotland's pro- and anti-independence campaigners following remarks by EU President-elect Jean-Claude Juncker, who said he did not expect the EU to agree to any new states joining the institution for at least five years. An anti-independence campaign Better Together claimed the country would leave the EU if it left the UK.
“I think Juncker’s initial remarks were probably ill-advised, but I do think he was referring to the current batch of countries, who are in accession talks. That includes Turkey, Kosovo, Montenegro and two or three others that are not in the next five or six years going to get access to the European Union. It’s going to take much longer for them,” said McLeish, who held the first minister post until 2001 and now teaches European Studies in the United States.
Juncker later said the question of the EU membership for independent Scotland would be an “entirely separate issue”.
McLeish agreed with the current First Minister of Scotland, Alex Salmond, who had claimed the biggest threat to Scotland in terms of EU membership was from a possible "In/Out" referendum in 2017.
“The Better Together campaign should be less concerned by Juncker’s remarks and more concerned that the UK could be facing an in-or-out vote in 2017 in relation to our membership. That is the much more dramatic threat to those that want to vote 'No' in the Scottish independence referendum. On that point, Alex Salmond is right,” McLeish said.
Juncker's predecessor, José Manuel Durão Barroso, claimed it would be “extremely difficult” for an independent Scotland to secure EU membership. McLeish advised Junker to refrain from such comments.
“What Juncker must avoid is falling into the trap of Barroso because the European Union is a democratic organization. Scotland’s application will have to go through a pre-accession, accession and post-accession process like all other countries," McLeish said.
“I think if that had been made clearer – with the caveat that it will be a formal process but that we don’t see any insurmountable problems – that would have been fairer reflection on the European issue,” he added.
The former Scottish First Minister said he feared that the 2017 election could mean an exit for Scotland, the votes in England being "currently troubled."
Scots go to the polls on 18th September to answer one question, "Should Scotland become an independent country?"
