GLASGOW, August 6 (RIA Novosti), Mark Hirst – The first major live television debate ahead of the Scottish independence referendum that will take place on September 18 is unlikely to have a major impact on current polling, an expert in political science has told RIA Novosti.
Professor John Curtice said major television debates, like the one that took place last night between the leader of the pro-independence Scottish National Party, Alex Salmond and his pro-UK opponent and former UK Chancellor of the Exchequer, Alistair Darling, can influence the polls, but he told RIA Novosti, “This one doesn’t look like it will be particularly decisive in terms of shifting the aggregate numbers.”
“More broadly it does look like Mr Darling has got the most post-debate coverage,” Curtice added. “I think even if you regard it as a draw that was all that Darling was trying to achieve. This is an occasion on which if it fails to move undecided voters that is obviously an advantage to one side rather than the other – obviously the side that is ahead – namely the No side.”
Curtice, a Professor in Politics at Strathclyde University and a respected expert on public opinion polling told RIA Novosti that although there was no clear winner in a debate that was watched by 1.7 million Scots, the No side will be feeling more satisfied with the performance of Darling than Salmond’s team.
“I think the no side will feel the debate did them no damage and may have in fact done them some good. Whereas the Yes side will probably feel that what they thought might have been a golden opportunity is not going to obviously deliver very much for them,” Curtice said.
Curtice told RIA Novosti that Darling, often regarded as a dull political performer, had shown some unexpected fight during the debate.
“I think what did surprise me was the degree to which Darling took to the fight and indeed proved to be the more animated of the two, given the perception that he is nice but a bit grey and might have wanted to just bore away,” Curtice said.
“Other aspects were less of a surprise, like Darling’s focusing on the currency issue, which is his favourite subject,” Curtice added.
“We certainly expected Salmond to do better when he was laying out the broader vision rather than doing the detail. We expected, and perhaps he couldn’t avoid the temptation, of treating it like another version of First Minister’s Question Time and therefore rather than playing the ball Salmond decided to play the man. All of those aspects were largely in character,” Curtice told RIA Novosti.
A snap poll taken immediately after the debate was televised showed 56 percent of Scots who say they are certain to vote, back a No vote with 44 percent backing a Yes vote, broadly in line with previous polls taken since the start of the year.
But more detailed analysis published today by polling firm Ipsos-Mori has revealed a growing number of previously undecided voters are moving to backing a Yes vote.
