MOSCOW, September 10 (RIA Novosti) - On Sunday, September 14, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko will mark his 100 days in office.
There were many expectations for the new head of state, who was elected in the first round. Now, though, it is becoming readily apparent that before the events on Maidan, Ukrainians did not want to live a poor life and demanded Yanukovych’s resignation, whereas after Poroshenko’s rise to power their life has changed for the worse.
The country is now on the brink of default: since the start of the year, the rate of the dollar to the hryvnia has increased by 75 percent. There is no hot water in residential buildings even in Kiev, and the winter heating season is a tremendous challenge. Instead of making constructive proposals to Donbas, Kiev unleashed a civil war in eastern Ukraine. This has taken a huge toll on civilians and Ukrainian army servicemen and called into question Ukraine’s territorial integrity.
WAY TO THE TOP
It is hardly a coincidence that the oligarch whom the media referred to as a sponsor of Kiev’s EuroMaidan, which led to the February coup in Ukraine, found himself at the top of Kiev’s political Olympus. But historically revolutions devour their children. Once power passed into the right hands, Maidan was not needed and the protesters were ousted from Independence Square, albeit not at one go.
He is also a former minister. At different times, he headed the Foreign Ministry and the Economic Development Ministry. Meanwhile, he owns plants, newspapers and even steamships – in fact, he is the owner of the Leninskaya Kuznya shipyard.
A native of the Odessa Region, Poroshenko is not new to politics. He was elected repeatedly to the Verkhovna Rada, with the first time being elected in 1998. During the Orange Revolution, he was one of Viktor Yushchenko’s closest allies. After Yushchenko’s victory in the presidential elections, he was appointed as the secretary of Ukraine’s National Security Council and Defense. Under Yushchenko, Poroshenko served as the foreign minister in 2009 and 2010. Under his successor, Viktor Yanukovych, he headed the Economic Development Ministry. Poroshenko was reelected to the Rada during the 2012 elections and left his ministerial post.
Before his presidency, Poroshenko’s wealth was estimated by Forbes at $1.6 billion. His primary asset is the Roshen Confectionery Corporation. In this context, he was dubbed the Chocolate King. Indicatively, during the presidential race in April, Poroshenko promised to sell Roshen because of his desire to concentrate solely on the state’s well-being while holding such a responsible position. That said, the corporation has not yet been sold, although the search for buyers has started. However, the sale of Poroshenko’s Fifth Channel on Ukrainian TV has not even been mentioned.
FIGURES AND PRESIDENTIAL PROMISES
An analysis of Poroshenko’s inauguration speech shows that he has carried out few election promises. Needless to say, 100 days is not a long period, but it can still give an idea of the managerial abilities of new Ukrainian authorities.
Poroshenko said that he would make his first trip as president to the east of the country, bring peace and commence a project to decentralize power. However, he did not keep his promise. Instead, the residents of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions were subjected to a punitive operation, the indiscriminate use of heavy weapons, and aviation and Grad multiple rocket system attacks. Poroshenko failed to abstain from the temptation to divide Ukrainians into the good and the bad.
Running for presidency, Poroshenko said that “it is time to start a new life.” In his opinion, this means that Ukraine should join the European Union (EU). Kiev has achieved certain successes on this road, such as signing the EU Association Agreement, albeit in two stages. But paradoxically, although the economic part of this agreement was signed in June, Kiev is not rushing to ratify the document because the EU has granted it trade benefits that will be lost after ratification.
Kiev has also moved forward in its relations with NATO. Poroshenko attended the NATO summit in Wales on September 4 and 5 where Ukraine was promised 15 million euros in aid for military reforms that will be granted by way of four trust funds. Ukraine’s membership in NATO is not on the agenda for the time being, although Kiev is working to secure the status of a privileged partner.
Having assumed office, Poroshenko said that today’s Verkhovna Rada does not reflect the attitudes of society and promised its full reset. He kept the promise and dissolved the parliament. Snap elections will be held on October 26 with the participation of the resuscitated Solidarity Party, which was recently renamed as the Petro Poroshenko Bloc.
It is already clear that Poroshenko’s statements regarding a joint Ukraine-EU project to create jobs in the country’s east will hardly become reality even in the long-term perspective. Even Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk has acknowledged that the restoration of Donbas’s infrastructure after the hostilities will require billions of dollars. In the past, economists said that the implementation of the economic segment of the Ukraine-EU Association Agreement will lead to the destruction of industry in Ukraine. Today, after 100 days of Poroshenko’s presidency, it has become clear that a section of industry in Donbas has already been destroyed without the contribution of the EU economy.
Poroshenko promised to turn the Ukrainian army into genuine elite. He has not done so yet and not only because he has been in office for a little over three months. The primary issue is the attitude of the authorities toward the defenders of the country. The army servicemen taking part in the military operations were promised to be equated with participants in hostilities. They were told that the relatives of the victims will receive compensation amounting to 500 minimal salaries. However, there were no funds in this regard, Finance Minister Oleksandr Shlapak said, as Ukraine’s Treasury pays 1.5 billion hryvnias ($116 million) for military operations monthly. For this reason, the authorities either underrate substantially human losses or falsify the causes of death to avoid payment. Maybe Poroshenko should be reminded of his inauguration speech when he said that “those who stint money on their own armed forces are feeding a foreign army?”
Indicatively, despite all of his talk about “Russian aggression,” Poroshenko is not rushing to announce martial law. The answer is rather simple. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) does not pay countries in a state of war, and Ukraine is dying for money.
As for relations with Russia, Poroshenko planned to fix them at the negotiating table or in court. Ukraine has already sued Russia in the European Human Rights Court for damages linked to Crimea’s reunification. Ukraine estimates these damages to be over 1 trillion hryvnias (about $100 billion at the exchange rate at the moment).
Over these 100 days, Russia and Ukraine exchanged gas lawsuits. On June 16, immediately after Gazprom demanded advance payments for gas, the Ukrainian state company Naftogaz filed a lawsuit with the Stockholm Arbitration Court, demanding the revision of the gas contract. Naftogaz demanded that Gazprom reduce its gas prices and return the $6 billion that it received in excess since 2010. In turn, Gazprom appealed to the same court demanding that Naftogaz pay its debts.
Poroshenko’s forecasts regarding the investment boom in Ukraine are not worth a mention. In August, Fitch Ratings, a global agency, reduced the long-term rating of Ukraine’s default from B- to CCC, which indicates that its economy is in genuine trouble. The conclusions are disappointing. Ukrainian authorities today are facing the difficult task of preventing the country’s potential disintegration and saving its economy with foreign loans, including from the IMF.
