Energy Security Expert: Japan May Lift Sanctions Against Russia Due to Mutual Interests

MOSCOW, September 30 (RIA Novosti) - Mr. Nobuo Tanaka, Global Associate for Energy Security and Sustainability at the Institute for Energy Economics in Tokyo, spoke with Radio VR on the recent announcement by Japan’s Foreign Minister that the sanctions against Russia may be revised or even cancelled. The Japanese expert's main reason for such a possibility is the extensive mutual  economic and bilateral trade interests.

“We need each other. Russia needs good sales in growing Asian economies, and Japan is a stable good customer. For example, we think that it is a good idea to build pipelines – and Japan already imports a lot of Russian energy – but the pipelines would strengthen our mutual relationships. We think more positively when we think about mutual interest between us”, Mr. Tanaka said. Mr. Tanaka offered his viewpoint on what is happening in relation to West and Japan's sanctioning of Russia and how Russia-Japan relations may develop in the future.

In Mr. Tanaka’s words, Japan is a part of the G7, and has joined its other members in similar sanctions against Russia. However, the expert noted, each country has a different geopolitical situation in relation to Russia. Despite looking similar, the approach and the expected outcome of the sanctions against Russia are different in each nation involved. “In fact Japanese sanctions are not targeting Russia’s energy sector”, Mr. Tanaka said. They are imposed on some of Russia’s financial institutions, which makes “the impact of Japanese sanctions slightly different than that of other nations’ measures”. Thus, Mr. Tanaka stated, Japan is not copying somebody else’s measures. “The US want us to do similar things, but Japan has a mutual and very common interest with Russia. That is why Japan’s Foreign Minister indicated that if the situation improves, we may make a sudden decision”, Mr. Tanaka said.

According to the expert, the Ukraine situation is improving, but the sanctions are still intact because the G7 feels the necessity for them to be. For Asia, the Ukrainian situation is different than in Europe, Mr. Tanaka noted. On the one hand, the crisis is playing out on European soil, with the whole situation needing to be solved by the Ukrainian government and their European partners. On the other hand, the Ukrainian crisis has changed trade measures in the Eastern Asia. Russia is now selling gas to China, which is, in Mr. Tanaka’s opinion, “a good move for Japan as well”. Russian energy supplies may also pump gas and oil across its eastern boundary to Japan, suggested the expert.

Radio VR also asked Mr. Tanaka if there is any connection between the long-lasing Russian-Japanese territorial dispute and the current Tokyo’s sanctions against Moscow, to which the expert replied: “I think this is a very different issue”.

In his words, the territorial dispute must be solved by talks and dialogue. “Japan does not use financial sanctions to get our Northern Territories back”, the expert said. “I think the friendship between the Prime Minister Abe and President Putin is a very good basis to solve this historically very important issue”.

Mr. Tanaka brought up some recent history to illustrate his viewpoint; West Germany's defiance of the US when it decided to purchase Soviet gas in the 1970's after a large shock in oil prices. There was an extensive discussion at the time whether West Germany should have been buying gas from the USSR, and the US were fiercely opposed to such practice, noted Mr. Tanaka. However, West Germany decided to buy the Soviet gas and it led to a dramatic increase of economic interdependence between Bonn and Moscow, which in turn paved the way for the reunification of East and West Germany. Therefore, Mr. Tanaka said, “the mutual economic integration is the basis to a better solution of a territorial issue”.

The expert also speculated that Russia’s counter-sanctions might be imposed against Japan, similar in the case to the EU foods exports now banned from entering Russia.

“If such counter-measures would mean the stop of oil and gas exports, we would have been very much concerned”, Mr. Tanaka said. “But we don’t think Russia would do that, as in case of Europe, Moscow only stopped the import of certain vegetables and fruit and other foods, and we do not export much foods in Russia”. In the expert’s opinion, sanctions and counter-sanctions represent a very counterproductive way of doing things. At the same time, both Japan and Russia share a many mutual interests. “I think we have to find a good mutually acceptable solution, even though the current geopolitics deteriorated due to the Ukraine situation. But I think we can find a solution, and the businesses must work closely with each other in order to make it possible”, Mr. Tanaka concluded.

Japan previously imposed financial restrictions on several Russian enterprises and persons in connection with the crisis  in Ukraine. Japan’s sanctions on Russia are mostly financial measures, as opposed to the restrictions implemented by the US and the EU targeting Russia’s energy sector as well.

Japan’s Foreign Minister Fumio Kishida has hinted there is a possibility that Russia sanctions will be reviewed in case the Ukraine situation improves. However, as noted by Radio VR, despite there being a truce in Ukraine for nearly a month, the sanctions against Russia are still intact, and Japan seems to pursue a “copy-paste” policies toward Russia, following the US lead.