If you thought the issue of Scottish independence had gone away, think again.
At the beginning of this year, most politicians at Westminster believed that the Scottish referendum on independence would herald a decisive victory for the “No” camp and that the United Kingdom would return to business as usual. But they were wrong. Far from returning to business as usual, many observers believe the UK will never be the same again following the referendum, despite the fact that the “No” camp won the vote, albeit by a small margin.
The three main parties at Westminster — the Conservatives, Labour and Liberal Democrats – were so alarmed by the prospect of a “Yes” victory that they agreed on more devolved powers to the Scottish Parliament in the event of a “No” vote, including greater control over Scotland’s taxation, welfare and finance.
For a lot of politicians at Westminster, that promise was perceived as a Pandora’s box as it might increase calls for additional devolved powers for Wales and Northern Ireland and would re-ignite the discussion over whether England, the most important country within the UK (England’s population is 53 million, Scotland’s 5 million, Wales’ 3 million and Northern Ireland’s nearly 2 million), should manage its own affairs without Scottish MPs at Westminster having a say on English matters. The question of whether Scots MPs should vote on English affairs is known as ‘the West Lothian question’.
Sure enough, following the “No” vote in Scotland, calls were made by the Assemblies in Wales and Northern Ireland for additional devolved powers from Westminster. And sure enough, the debate about English MPs deciding English matters re-emerged.
Many of Westminster’s politicians now believe that the debate could lead to a fairer, more prosperous and stronger union. Conversely, the concern of some politicians at Westminster is that further powers to Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, coupled with new powers for England, could, in the long-run, damage the unity of all four parts of the UK and bring about an eventual end to the union. Given that, for example, an English parliament would have within its jurisdiction most of the territory and population of the UK, it is conceivable that if such a parliament was to be established, it could rival the parliament at Westminster. But that seems to be a distant future – for now. However, in the short-term, the Scottish referendum could have some major consequences – some of them unforeseen.
A significant number of traditional Labour voters in Scotland feel let down and angry by how the leadership of the Labour party campaigned for a “No” vote alongside the Conservative party. The resentment towards the Labour leadership is today being reflected in opinion polls which show that the Scottish National Party, which was at the heart of the “Yes” campaign in the referendum, could pick up at least 30 MPs from Labour at next year’s general election (Labour currently has 41 MPs in Scotland). If those opinion polls were to materialise, then Labour would lose three-quarters of its total number of MPs in Scotland, reducing, rather tremendously, the chances of Labour forming the next government in the UK in 2015 and in the foreseeable future.
For the leadership of the Conservative party, the main domestic headache at the next year’s general election could be the issue of devolved powers to England. Many Conservative MPs feel very strongly about seeing only English MPs voting on affairs which concern England. On top of that, the United Kingdom Independence Party, the new rising force in British politics, has said that it supports establishing a parliament for England. If David Cameron does not come out in favour of an English parliament, then he and his party will run the risk of allowing UKIP leader Nigel Farage, to claim he is the only one committed to seeing a ‘fair deal for England’ – something that has begun to seriously resonate with many English people following Scotland’s referendum.
Then there is the possibility of supporters of Welsh independence and supporters of Irish re-unification securing a referendum for their own respective objectives. Many people in Wales and Northern Ireland saw the Scottish referendum as having set a precedent (similar to how many in Catalonia, Spain, viewed the referendum). In Northern Ireland, for instance, the Catholic community, who largely support re-unifying with the Republic of Ireland, will at some point in the not too distant future become the majority, given the higher birth rate which Catholic families have in comparison to Protestant ones. In the event of most people in Northern Ireland voting to re-unify with the Republic of Ireland, not only would this mark the break-up of the UK but it could also re-ignite violence between the Catholic and Protestant communities as the latter is overwhelmingly, and fiercely, committed to the union. A return to revolt in Northern Ireland would constitute a catastrophic disaster for the whole of the UK.
At a time of voter apathy in Britain and a growing sense of public disillusionment with the Conservative, Labour and Liberal Democrat parties, if Westminster fails to deliver on what it promised to Scotland and the rest of the union, then this could pave the way for an immense amount of electoral support to other parties, which are already riding the crest of a wave. The SNP could secure the largest number of Westminster MPs in Scotland; Plaid Cymru, the Welsh nationalists, could supplant Labour in having the most MPs in Wales; and UKIP could pose an even more potent threat to Conservative and Labour MPs in England than it currently does. Unless Westminster acts, a new charge of being disingenuous about devolution could be laid at its door.
With the talented and effective Nicola Sturgeon now Scotland’s First Minister and leader of the SNP, together with the huge rise in support for the SNP (its membership rose from 26,000 to over 80,000 following the “No” vote in the referendum, making it the third largest political party in the UK), politicians at Westminster are under massive pressure to deliver on their word about more devolved powers to Scotland. The SNP has already warned that Westminster parties “would pay a heavy, heavy electoral price” if the promise, made before the referendum, of more powers to Scotland was not made good. If they fail to do so, then, ironically, it could be Westminster’s politicians who set the stage for the UK’s break-up, starting where it all began…with Scotland.
