The tentative deal being discussed is for Iran to comply with International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspections of its nuclear-related sites for a period of ten years. This would include everything down the line, from procuring raw materials to the transfer of nuclear fuel to its power plants. Still, Israel fears Iran may covertly develop a nuclear weapons program right under the world’s nose, especially if they have secret and undeclared nuclear facilities not subject to the deal. Even if they don’t, their reasoning goes, after the agreement expires in ten years, Iran will be free to do what it wants, and can use its existing and internationally approved nuclear infrastructure to “breakout” and develop a nuclear weapon.
Nuclear Apartheid
Israel’s concerns basically boil down to the fact that Iran would be internationally guaranteed the same nuclear energy and associated infrastructure rights as all other signatories of the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). Critiquing Israel’s logic, it’s not just Iran that’s in danger of “breaking out” then, but every other country with a nuclear power plant, which would include such unlikely candidates as Armenia, Switzerland, and Finland. The solution, as inferred by Israel’s stance, would be for Iran to enter into a type of nuclear apartheid, never before implemented in the history of the NPT, and for it to practically have no nuclear infrastructure of its own. And Iran, or any other similarly positioned country for that matter, would never agree to such discriminatory measures against itself.
Intentions, Intentions
If the Israeli argument comes down to Iran’s intentions, then Japan is actually at a greater risk of a nuclear breakout than Iran is. It already has nine tons of stockpiled plutonium from its own nuclear energy program, which analysts predict is enough to create 5,000 nukes, and that it could take as little as six months to create its first bomb. It’s actually not as far-fetched as it may sound, since this US ally and economic powerhouse has been provoking China for the past few years over disputed island claims in the East China Sea. Although officially a pacifist country per its post-World War II constitution, current Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s administration recently reinterpreted the document to allow Japan a greater international military role. This raised fears in East Asia that the country might one day try to formally remilitarize, in what would be a dangerous decision that could possibly spark a nuclear arms race in the region.
But let’s look at Iran’s intentions again. Since 2007, US intelligence agencies have been saying that Iran abandoned its nuclear weapons program, thus showing that there’s no will in Tehran to pursue such a path. And there’s no reason the world should doubt them. They’ve repeatedly said that over the years, certain flamboyant American and Israeli politicians shouted them down with unfounded nuclear accusations in order to score political points and lobby for war. Even if Iran’s leaders changed their minds, the deep infiltration of its nuclear program by American and Israeli intelligence agencies all but guarantees that the news would quickly leak out. Add regular international inspections to the mix (amid an already distrustful climate) and it’s a safe bet that any nefarious intentions coming from Iran would be detected well in advance to mitigate any theoretical threat.
Good Cop, Bad Cop
So Israel is arguing the cause for pre-emptive war well in advance of any provocations coming from Iran, while the US tries to charm its leadership at the negotiating table. This demonstrates the US-Israeli partnership at its finest, with the two playing off a good cop, bad cop arrangement to corner Iran. While the US holds out the carrot, Israel wields the stick, and in the end, nothing changes regarding their intentions towards Iran. The two partners aspire for Iranian political subservience, either by hook or by crook. If it can’t be strong-armed or scared into complying with their vision (the Israeli route), then they’ll deceive and undermine it through the ‘long game’ that would play out after sanctions are removed (the US route). In fact, the two paths are complementary, since if the US plan fails (by design or by chance), then the Israel idea has already been elucidated and is eagerly waiting in the wings to be activated. Thus, no matter which way Iran moves, it finds itself on the horns of a dilemma and must take due care to avoid getting gorged.
