Qatar’s support of the Brotherhood has long been a bone of contention in the Mideast, and it’s been recently used as a destabilizing proxy during the ‘Arab Spring’ events. After the overthrow of President Mubarak in Egypt and his replacement with Brotherhood representative Mohammed Morsi, the Gulf States began to seriously consider whether they might be next. Tensions boiled over earlier this year when Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and the UAE withdrew their ambassadors from Qatar to protest Doha’s support of what the three view to be a terrorist group. However, this Gulf ‘Cold War’ has taken a surprisingly quick turn over the past couple months and now seems to be completely settled. So what happened, and what ties, if any, does Qatar still retain with the Brotherhood?
Speculative Statements
Qatar hasn’t officially described its new relationship with the Brotherhood, but some important statements made during and about Tuesday’s GCC Summit in Doha can be revealing of its nature.
Firstly, the Summit itself was surprising and didn’t look like it would even occur until the last minute. “The fact that the meeting is taking place is in itself a success. For the Gulf leaders to come to Qatar after all that happened is a big event”, assistant secretary-general of the GCC Abdul Aziz Aluwaisheg was quoted as saying. Once it kicked off, Sheik Thani, the young ruler of Qatar, said he hoped it would “signal a new beginning for Gulf relations”, and that “we have no choice but to face terrorism”. The second comment is exceptionally interesting because three of the GCC members have listed the Brotherhood as a terrorist group. Thani underlined, however, that "against these dangers and challenges that surround us on all sides, we cannot be sidetracked by differences over details.” This was echoed by Kuwaiti Emir Sabah Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah, whose country has been integral in bringing the Qataris and Saudis back together, when he said that differences between the GCC members were “natural”.
What can be grasped by the abovementioned is that Qatar is still standing by the Muslim Brotherhood, although it wants the rest of the countries to put their reservations aside in the name of reconciliation. But things aren’t all that simple, and Qatar obviously gave up concessions of its own, chief among them being the recognition of Sisi’s government in Egypt that toppled Morsi mid-last year. That’s not everything, though, as this process and the most important concessions involved began a few months earlier.
The Road To Reconciliation
Getting to this point has been quite a hurdle for Doha and Riyadh, but it all really started in late August when the Saudi Foreign Minister, Intelligence Chief, and Interior Minister visited Doha. Thani had been to Riyadh a month earlier, possibly paving the way for the high-delegation meeting. It’s not known exactly what transpired during the largely hushed talks, but Qatar kicked 7 Muslim Brotherhood leaders out of the country a few weeks later, in what was seen as a major concession to Saudi and Gulf demands. There was also talk of an agreement for Doha-based Al Jazeera to tone down their negative coverage of Sisi’s government in Egypt, not only to assuage the Saudis, but possibly to create a future opening for the release of their jailed journalists (imprisoned for aiding the Muslim Brotherhood). Then in November, Thani and Saudi King Abdullah had an unexpected meeting where they declared their mutual issues to be resolved, putting an end to the Qatari Crisis in the GCC.
Reading Between The Lines – The Brotherhood In ‘Exile’
There’s obviously more at play than is being let on publicly, as there is no way that the Saudis and their allies would allow Qatar to merely kick out a few Brotherhood leaders and then call it even. It can be discerned from Thani’s comments on Tuesday that his country is still supporting the Brotherhood, but that he understands other countries have an issue with this. Interestingly, however, the Saudis and their ilk seem eerily complacent with this arrangement, suggesting that Qatar must have made deeper concessions than it’s letting on.
What likely happened is that Qatar pledged to prevent the Brotherhood from taking hold in the Gulf in exchange for the GCC assenting to its presence in Syria and North Africa west of Egypt, far from where they can be of a threat to the oil-drenched Gulf Monarchies (or so is thought…). In Syria, they and their affiliated terrorist brigades can function as useful destabilizers in attempting to overthrow the democratically elected government there (which is in line with Saudi-led GCC interests), whereas in North Africa, they can pursue their own ends in Libya, Tunisia, and possibly even in Algeria when the country inevitably goes through its next leadership transition cycle (which will be sooner than later).
What makes that region different than Syria is that Egypt and the UAE are adamantly opposed to the terrorists operating in and spilling over from Libya, including the Qatari-affiliated ones, and this has spurred them to seriously look into an alliance with Kuwait and Saudi Arabia to fight against those groups. This means that Qatar’s Brotherhood proxies there will face serious resistance to their plans, but Saudi Arabia likely allowed them to continue their support in that area simply to reach an agreement with Doha, and possibly because the Kingdom feels itself to be geographically insulated what happens there (whether this is a misperception by the monarchy or not).
What all of this amounts to is that Qatar is still supporting the Muslim Brotherhood, albeit not in the Gulf, but in ‘exiled’ regions further abroad like the Levant (Syria) and North Africa west of Egypt. Its support is more subdued and less publicized, but it’s certainly there, and not everyone in the Gulf is happy about it. Regardless, this little arrangement has allowed the GCC to patch up their falling out, although it’s not known whether this will be a long-term solution or simply buying a breather for the inevitable split that may come with time and proxy wars.
