Migrant Voters in the 2015 General Election report suggests that one voter in every ten who are eligible to vote will be a migrant voter — and many more will be the children of migrants.
The report by Dr Robert Ford from Manchester University and Ruth Grove-White from the Migrants' Rights Network, reveals that almost 4 million people in England and Wales who were born overseas will be eligible to vote in May, compared with just under 3.5 million at the 2010 general election.
And it will be foreign-born voters particularly from India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nigeria and South Africa, along with the Irish Republic, who will make up the potential votes. The numbers are based on an estimate using 2001 and 2011 Census data.
Full report "Migrant voters in the 2015 General Election" available as a pdf here http://t.co/EqT4fqOjs4
— Migrants Rights Net (@migrants_rights) January 29, 2015
The majority of these votes are in highly concentrated inner-city seats in London and the West Midlands. Two seats in particular, East Ham and Brent North are predicted to be the first constituencies with a majority of registers voters born abroad.
However, people from the European Union, despite their growing presence in the UK, will ‘be heavily under-representing in May 2015, as a large majority have not yet acquired British citizenship', according to the report.
Dr Nasar Meer, reader in Comparative Social Policy and Citizenship at Strathclyde University says: "there's been a view for some time, that the next generation of ethnic minorities have the potential to play a role in swinging marginal seats especially in metropolitan boroughs.
"They could be the difference in terms of whether or not a seat goes Labour or Conservative.
"But UKIP has thrown that all out of tilter by outflanking the Tories on the right and shifting their rhetoric, where losing core votes is seen as more perilous than not winning ethnic minority votes".
Migrants' Rights Network: significant migrant vote in general election that could determine 20 seats: http://t.co/grxNHvFHYO
— Saskia Warren (@SaskiaWarren1) January 29, 2015
Meanwhile, according to the Islamic Human Rights Commission, the huge gains made by UKIP, ‘demonstrate the dangerous extent to which racist and Islamophobic discourse has penetrated British political culture'.
In a statement following UKIP's success in recent by-elections, Massoud Shadjareh, chair of the Islamic Human Rights Commission said: "The results in these by-elections indicate a worrying shift towards even more radicalised and discriminatory political narrative. The mainstream media and political classes need to highlight this and back away from it, rather than fuel it."
Common Concerns
‘Migrant Voters in the 2015 General Election' report suggests that one voter in every ten who are eligible to vote will be a migrant voter — and many more will be the children of migrants.
Dr Meer says there are a number of constituencies where ethnic minority voters aren't voting as ethnic minorities — but as politicised constituents.
"They're driven by policies like the health system. There is polling evidence that there is concern about these issues within ethnic minorities who are politically engaged. This will certainly play a role in the outcome of the coming election, especially in marginal seats.
The rhetoric of race and immigration can really alarm them, says Meer. It's a wager that the political parties need to make:
"Will the Conservatives see a better return by suring up the core votes by appealing to people's anxieties about immigration, thus appeasing UKIP — or appealing to a more one- nation version of conservatism and migrant voters?"
But this is hypothetical, according to Meer and yet to be seen in the pending general election.
