Corrupted Oligarchical System Prevents Ukraine From Conducting Reforms

Ukraine risks sliding into the abyss of political meltdown and what it needs today is for the West to pressure Kiev to carry out much anticipated economic and political reforms, emphasized Dmitri Trenin, a historian, political analyst and the Director of the Carnegie Moscow Center.

"One can argue that the Maidan revolution of 2014 has changed everything except Ukraine's oligarchical politico-economic system. True, Viktor Yanukovych is gone, but the rest have only become more powerful with his departure. The one-clan-rule regime is finished, but the corrupt oligarchical regime has been restored," Dmitri Trenin underscored.

The historian stressed that it is naïve to expect that the Ukrainian oligarchs and their political agents will conduct deep economic reform for the sake of the country's well-being. He referred to the fact that Ihor Kolomoisky, the notorious Ukrainian tycoon, rushed to take over his business assets in Kiev several weeks ago, in violation of the state's legislation.

Meanwhile, some Ukrainian politicians, particularly ex-prime minister Yulia Tymoshenko, are struggling for their bit of power. Others are busy discussing procedures for privatization of the country's assets in Verkhovna Rada, which is "divided not so much along party lines as oligarchical clan interests," the analyst pointed out. 

In light of political instability in the country, the Minsk 2 agreement looks especially fragile. The analyst is inclined to consider the situation in Donbass a "frozen conflict." Kiev can neither rehabilitate nor reintegrate the region, he noted. The point is that Donbass can be returned to Ukraine's fold only if it "de facto" capitulates. This could be achieved through either Kiev's victory over independence supporters in eastern Ukraine, or the Kremlin's political collapse, the analyst emphasized, adding that "neither of these is realistic at this point."

Dmitri Trenin dismissed the possibility of a Russian military invasion of eastern Ukraine, elaborating that it would be not only "costly in every conceivable way," but also "utterly unnecessary" for Moscow.

At the same time he emphasized that it is important for the US to make sure that its Ukrainian allies do not "jump the gun, expecting the United States to rush in to defend them," like ex-president of Georgia Mikhail Saakashvili in 2008. Dmitri Trenin warned that both Washington and Moscow in that case will be sucked into a "vortex" of new Ukrainian turmoil.

"Prime Minister Yatsenyuk has made a habit of saying the Ukrainians are fighting for Western civilization. This time, the miscalculation could have much more serious consequences than what happened in South Ossetia," Dmitri Trenin claimed.

What Ukraine really needs is not a new round of military campaigns in the East, but fundamental economic and political reforms. The West must step in and pressure Kiev to carry out necessary changes in order to prevent Ukraine from sliding into the abyss of a complete meltdown, the analyst pointed out.