Every political party has spent the past months making more and more promises to the British public, many of which they will never be able to implement. Most opinion polls are predicting a hung parliament, where no one party has enough seats to command a full majority and implement its manifesto pledges.
Our latest Nowcast (including 41k new interviews): Con 272 (+2), Lab 276 (-1), LD 24 (-3), UKIP 3 (-), SNP 52 (+2) http://t.co/9PoFitW8Jb
— YouGov (@YouGov) April 29, 2015
In 2010, famously, the Conservatives, under David Cameron, failed to win a majority and did a deal with Nick Clegg's party, under which the Liberal Democrats reneged on their pledge "to vote against any increase in fees in the next parliament and to pressure the government to introduce a fairer alternative". Their reputation has fallen low, particularly among student voters with long memories.
Clegg himself faces a battle in his own Sheffield Hallam constituency, which has one of the highest proportions of university graduates in Britain. Many of those who work at Sheffield's two universities live in his constituency, the east part of which includes the University of Sheffield's main student village.
Today's @TimesRedBox poll: Party supporters want Miliband, Cameron and Clegg to stay http://t.co/5tnkmaIP9v pic.twitter.com/3wx9tBb3C1
— YouGov (@YouGov) April 29, 2015
Promises, Promises…
Yet lessons on breaking pre-election promises have not been learned. The Tories say they will spend an extra $12.3 billion (£8bn) above inflation for the NHS by 2020 and will provide 30 hours of free childcare per week for working parents of 3 and 4-year-olds.
The economy isn't lines on a graph or words in a book — it's jobs, a good school, a well-funded NHS: https://t.co/ezeiIk3WF0
— David Cameron (@David_Cameron) April 27, 2015
Labour says it will spend an extra $3.8 billion (£2.5bn) on the NHS and raise the minimum wage to more than $12.3 per hour (£8ph) by 2019. The Liberal Democrats are this time pledging guaranteed education funding, from nursery to 19, with an extra $3.8 billion (£2.5bn) and qualified teachers in every class.
Our NHS rescue plan involves training and recruiting 20,000 more nurses and 8,000 more GPs: http://t.co/ij7F86Q6t2
— Ed Miliband (@Ed_Miliband) April 23, 2015
All the other parties are also making their pre-election promises on everything from the environment to UKIP's bid to get the UK out of the European Union.
The reality is different. If, as predicted, no party wins an overall majority, the largest party will either try and form a coalition with another party or try to run as a minority government. Either way, they will have to make compromise agreements with the other parties. That will necessarily mean making policy compromises that will fly in the face of pre-election promises.
RT @Nigel_Farage warns common EU Migration/Asylum policy is already developed and is a threat to our civilisation https://t.co/dO5suaDtfh
— UKIP (@UKIP) April 29, 2015
More strikingly, whatever shade of government gets in next week, they will be faced with UK government debt of $2.4 trillion, or 81.58% of total GDP. They will have to make harsh cuts or increase taxes, whichever way they look at it. Cuts hurt people — with the poorest often the worst hit. Welfare handouts will have to be slashed. And people will have to pay more in taxes, direct or indirect.
That is the stark reality you won't find in any of their manifestos. And they know it.
