However, all those assumptions are groundless and there is no reasonable basis to say that Iran would double-cross the great Russian bear, F. William Engdhal, prominent lecturer and geopolitical author, wrote in his article for New Eastern Outlook.
It is hardly possible that Iran will undermine Russia’s economic stability with major oil and gas export deals, the expert believes.
He suggests taking a look at what the consequences would be for Iran to directly undercut Russia’s oil and gas exports with its own oil and gas.
"First of all it would deliver Tehran to the mercy of the same West that imposed the sanctions," Engdhal explained.
"Iran has nothing to gain by reckless actions and creating new enemies when its new American ‘friend’ is hardly trustworthy," the analyst said.
He thinks that Moscow and Tehran would be able to reach an agreement on oil and gas market shares acceptable for both countries.
"The other moderating factor is major new arms agreements and negotiations for delivery of past purchases once the sanctions are lifted. Those deals from Tehran are with Moscow so far and visibly not NATO countries of the West," he added.
Moreover, Iran is currently interested in the purchase of advanced weapons and military hardware which could be delivered without any preconditions or concessions, Engdhal.
This is why Iran intends to buy Russian-made S-300 anti-aircraft missile systems as well as Russian jet fighters. The country also plans to use Russian-produced rocket carriers to launch its satellites into orbit.
In view of all this, Tehran is expected to deepen its strategic ties with Moscow, not to deliberately make an economic enemy, Engdhal continued.
Another major reason that keeps Iran close to Eurasia and not NATO is China’s Silk Road infrastructure project, according to the analyst.
"For China, Iran’s geographical location and its topography make it a strategic partner for developing the network of overland infrastructure corridors crisscrossing Eurasia independent of a potential confrontation with the US Naval presence," he said.
In addition, once the sanctions are lifted Iran has the right to become a member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). Currently, Tehran has Observing Status, but a decision on its admission to the SCO may be approved during next year’s annual meeting.
"For Iran, fully cooperating with this development, led by China and Russia, is far more promising than becoming a geopolitical pawn of Washington in economic or any other wars against China and Russia," the author concluded.
