Russia-OPEC Alliance? Bloomberg’s Five Reasons Why We Won’t See It

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The prospect of possible cooperation between Russia and OPEC and their likely “unity of purpose” to turn the oil taps off seem to be agitating the global business community. Bloomberg however gives five reasons why we won’t see such an alliance in the near future.

Oil Pump Jack - Sputnik International
Why Russia Keeps Oil Output as Global Prices Nosedive
Despite recent market speculation on a possible alliance between Russia and the member states of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), the US-based financial agency has come up with several, what it calls “sound”, economic and technical reasons why Russia won’t cooperate with OPEC in curbing oil production to stabilize shrinking oil prices.

First of all, it says, despite the oil prices contributing the largest share to the country’s budget, Russia is able to ‘tolerate its low cost much better than any OPEC members”.

“Russia’s budget deficit is projected to be about 3 percent of economic output this year, according to Finance Minister Anton Siluanov,” Bloomberg says. “Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s largest producer, will have a budget gap of almost 20 percent, the International Monetary Fund forecasts.”

A general view shows the166th ordinary meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, OPEC, at their headquarters in Vienna, Austria - Sputnik International
Russia Has No Plans to Join OPEC - Kremlin
“Russia is comfortable with an oil price above $60 per barrel, Deputy Prime Minister Arkady Dvorkovich said last week. Several OPEC members need [oil to cost] more than $100 [per barrel] to balance their government budgets, according to the IMF. Brent crude, the international benchmark, traded at about $48 in London Friday.”

The agency also cites the Russian Energy Ministry as saying that even if Russia wanted to turn the tap off, “it doesn’t have the ability of some Persian Gulf producers to quickly raise or lower output because of the harsh winters and complex geology at its Siberian oil fields”.

“You cannot regulate the productivity of Russian wells simply by turning a faucet,” it quotes Sergei Klubkov, an exploration and production analyst at Moscow-based Vygon Consulting, as saying via e-mail.

Rosneft - Sputnik International
Russia
Rosneft CEO Sees No Reason for Russia to Become OPEC Member
The same is being reiterated by Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak  and Igor Sechin, the CEO of Russia’s largest oil company Rosneft, who said that making artificial cuts to output in exchange for a short-term gain in prices would be senseless. The country won’t be joining OPEC and couldn’t cut production even if it wanted to.

Russia also doesn’t have a single state-owned company that controls the nation’s oil production, such as the Saudi Arabian Oil Co. or National Iranian Oil Co, Sechin elaborated.

The number of publicly traded producers means the nation couldn’t curb output like an OPEC member.

Russian oil companies aren’t clamoring for an alliance with OPEC, the agency says. They are actually outperforming their international peers in metrics such as cash flow and profit margins. Russian oil extraction and export tax rates shrink at lower prices, giving companies a buffer against the slump in crude.

Oil tankers - Sputnik International
OPEC Unable to Control Oil Production in Member States
Another reason is that Russia, in fact, is in direct competition for market share with OPEC members. The rivalry is particularly acute in Asia, the main source of growth in oil demand and a region where Saudi Arabia is also taking steps to maintain its presence.

Iran, which produces a similar grade of crude to Russia, is preparing to ramp up production by as much as 1 million barrels a day next year after reaching an agreement to lift international sanctions.

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