ISIL's Attacks in Paris, Against Russian Plane a Sign of Desperation

Commenting on what appears to be a shift in its strategy, ISIL is now launching attacks against civilian targets outside its Middle Eastern base of operations in Syria and Iraq, retired French intelligence officer Alain Chouet told Atlantico that "the military operations of Russian forces in Syria and Kurdish groups in Iraq have seriously weakened the positions of ISIL and other Islamist groups. This has forced the Salafist leaders to reconsider their strategy, to demonstrate their ability to create problems worldwide."

In this connection, according to Chouet, "the Paris attacks were a continuation of the [terror which destroyed] the Russian aircraft over Egypt, and the attacks directed against Shiites in Beirut and Baghdad. It is no doubt but a prelude to other attacks on Western members of the anti-ISIL coalition. The terror group will attempt to increase tension and hatred between the Muslim communities in Europe and the countries in which they reside."

Retired French intelligence officer and counterterrorism expert Alain Rodier concurred, noting that "what happened in Paris confirms the theory of ISIL's changing strategy. Earlier, this extremist movement concentrated all its efforts on the war in Iraq and Syria, as well as the 'outskirts' of the Sinai, Libya, Afghanistan and Nigeria. The turning point seems to have been the terrorist attack against the Russian Airbus in Egypt [which the Russian president confirmed to be a terrorist attack on Tuesday] and the Lebanese Hezbollah movement in Beirut…ISIL now seeks to mark its existence by inspiring fear in the 'infidels'."

Noting that "ISIL has suffered a series of setbacks in the Syrian-Iraqi front," the Rodier nonetheless warned against overoptimistic estimations that the terror group was "on the brink of defeat."

As far as France is concerned, Rodier noted, the country is now "at war with radical Islamist organizations (Al-Qaeda and ISIL) and our citizens must understand this very clearly. This will affect people's daily lives and have an economic impact, which society would naturally be better off living without. [But] we have become the target of terror, and must make the appropriate response: we must at least temporarily put aside our typical politicized disunity. We must show resistance, like the British did during the Nazi bombings in 1941."

Chouet added that ultimately, "the war which has been declared was not declared today, but has gone on since France decided to come to terms with, or even support the existence of armed Salafist groups in the Middle East, and will continue until we take the decisive action of eliminating them, with the help of our partners in Arab and Muslim countries."

Regarding the dangers of ISIL attempting to take advantage of the refugees and migrants flowing into Europe, the intelligence expert noted that "up to this point, ISIL has not used the migration flows, because this involved too many risks for them. However, given that it is now increasingly losing ground, and feels threatened, we cannot rule out the possibility that the group will use any means possible to support itself."