Politico recalled that Turkey is the Russian energy giant Gazprom's second-largest gas export market after Germany, while Russia remains Turkey's largest gas supplier, accounting for approximately 60% of the country's foreign gas.
"Turkey is in a very delicate situation now. If Russia cut gas supplies due to geopolitical reasons, for Turkey that would be an unavoidable disaster," Tagliapietra said.
He added that a possible break-up of relations with Moscow will mean that "there is no way Turkey can diversify from Russia in the short term." In this regard, Tagliapietra referred to Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu's visit to Azerbaijan. The PM had hoped to speed up the construction of the Trans-Anatolian Pipeline (TANAP), which was originally slated to be put into operation in mid-2018.
"But even at a faster pace, the pipeline is still years from completion," he said.
He also pointed out that if Russia decides to cut off gas shipments to Turkey, Ankara will "want much more of that Caspian gas", and that the amount Turkey is set to get from TANAP "won't change the picture at all."
Tagliapietra described Ankara's energy diversification attempts as "very far from reality." In particular, he remained doubtful regarding efforts by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to explore options for buying more liquefied natural gas from Qatar.
"All these are options that are not feasible for Turkey today, tomorrow, or this winter," Tagliapietra said.
The two's ties were strained by Ankara's downing of a Russian Su-24 frontline bomber over Syria on November 24, which claimed the life of a Russian pilot and a naval infantryman who was engaged in subsequent rescue operations. Russia's President Vladimir Putin described the downing of the warplane as a "stab in the back" and decreed a series of economic restrictions against Turkey.
