Fyodor Lukyanov, Chairman of the Presidium of the Council on Foreign and Defense Policy, noted in a conversation with Champion that the situation in Aleppo underscores the bottom line of Moscow’s campaign in Syria.
"This is an absolutely crucial issue, both for Syria's future stability, and for Russia to demonstrate that the whole operation made sense. You need some kind of spectacular event of the scale of retaking Aleppo to do that," Lukyanov stated.
Champion questioned how a peace in Syria would develop after Aleppo, the country’s largest city, was retaken by Assad’s army.
Lukyanov suggested that a Turkish intervention in Syria would be “inevitable,” as Ankara would be dealing with an increase in refugees fleeing the ongoing violence in the war-torn country. At the same time, he said, the advance of Syrian and Kurdish forces would strip Turkey of control over the border with Syria, leading to creation of a “Kurdish proto-state” in the region.
Under this scenario, a standoff would expand, leading to a direct Russian-Turkish confrontation, something nobody wants, Lukyanov noted.
Control over territories reclaimed from Daesh would be accepted by Assad rather than by rebels backed by the US and Turkey.
“Kerry's problem, and that of the US and its allies, is that by now Putin holds virtually all the cards. Russia may not be the dominant player in the Middle East, but when it comes to Syria, it certainly is,” Champion said.
