“As an EU vote on the future of sanctions on Russia approaches, Ukraine is busy lobbying the continental bloc to maintain a hard line against Moscow,” Stratfor notes in its analysis of the matter, referring to Petro Poroshenko’s meeting with several EU leaders in Brussels on March 17.
Over the next few months, it predicts, Ukraine is likely to “employ various tactics as it attempts to keep the European Union united against Russia”.
However, for Ukraine, EU sanctions on Russia hang in the balance.
“The EU consensus on sanctions may be in jeopardy,” it predicts, noting that certain countries, such as Italy and Hungary, are indicating that they may choose to discontinue them at the next EU vote.
Thus, it explains, Ukraine still needs the West more than the West needs Ukraine, and the government is in no position to pressure the European Union.
“For this reason, Kiev will continue to employ a range of tactics, including diplomatic measures and threats to intensify the conflict if sanctions on Russia are eased. Regardless, the European Union's sanctions decision will rest on factors largely beyond Ukraine's control.”
