Rubin also outlined a number of contributing domestic issues. Turkey’s public debt may be stable but its private debt is getting out control. The tourism industry is almost in ruins. Finally, the weakening national currency is having an impact on citizens’ buying power, the analyst wrote for the American Enterprise Institute.
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is "out-of-control," the article read. He is imprisoning political opponents, cracking down on the freedom of speech and "building palaces at the rate of a mad sultan."
Earlier this month, Erdogan even threatened to dissolve the Turkish constitutional court.
"His outbursts are raising eyebrows both in Turkey and abroad. Even members of his ruling party whisper about his increasing paranoia, according to some Turkish officials," Rubin wrote.
The analyst also brought up the Kurdish problem. Originally, Erdogan resumed peace talks with Kurds, but then he started a war against them. At the same time, Ankara has no chance to win this war while chances are high of a "de facto partition."
Turkey understands that Erdogan is leading the country to nowhere, and the Turkish military understands this too.
"So if the Turkish military moves to oust Erdogan and place his inner circle behind bars, could they get away with it? In the realm of analysis rather than advocacy, the answer is yes," the author wrote.
Ahead of presidential elections, Barack Obama’s administration is unlikely to do more than castigate possible coup leaders, especially if they laid out a path to restore democracy in Turkey.
The fact that Turkey is one of the oldest NATO members could not prevent a coup, the analyst added.
He assumed that coup leaders would immediately release all jailed journalists and return seized newspapers and broadcasters to their rightful owners to avoid European and US criticism of human right violations in Turkey.
What is more, if the new government expresses willingness to work with Kurds the US and the EU would support it.
To sum up, Rubin noted that he makes no predictions. However, there are two strong factors that "Turkey’s rocky politics would soon get rockier" – the deepening domestic tensions and the chance that the Turkish military would suffer no significant consequences in the event of a coup.
