Much at Stake: Who Will Define Syria’s Future After Peace Talks Stalemate

© AFP 2023 / LOUAI BESHARASyrian men walk past a poster bearing a portrait of President Bashar al-Assad in the capital Damascus, on February 27, 2016, as the first major ceasefire of the five-year war takes hold and an international task force prepares to begin monitoring the landmark truce
Syrian men walk past a poster bearing a portrait of President Bashar al-Assad in the capital Damascus, on February 27, 2016, as the first major ceasefire of the five-year war takes hold and an international task force prepares to begin monitoring the landmark truce - Sputnik International
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The last round of the Syrian peace talks in Geneva ended on March 24 without significant progress, an article in Le Monde reported. However, the spotlight has shifted to Moscow where US State Secretary John Kerry met with his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov and President Vladimir Putin.

"This cannot be a coincidence," UN Special Envoy for Syria Staffan de Mistura commented. "We hope and we want to believe that these talks would help us move to the next stage."

After Kerry’s visit to Moscow was announced on March 15, the talks which opened a day earlier made no progress. At the same time, de Mistura underscored that the ceasefire in Syria is observed and humanitarian aid is supplied.

"No one slammed doors, went in for dramatics or rejected the legitimacy of the other side," he added.

Secretary of State John Kerry testifies on Capitol Hill in Washington, Tuesday, Feb. 23, 2016. - Sputnik International
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According to Le Monde, the talks were concentrated around the refusal of the Syrian government delegation to discuss power transition process. The opposition delegation considered the move an attempt to play for time.

As a result of the negotiations, de Mistura handed to the parties a document of 12 points approved by both delegations. But he once again dodged the issue of Bashar Assad’s future.

Meanwhile, in Moscow John Kerry took part in a "negotiating marathon to find common points with his Russian counterparts." His meeting with Lavrov lasted for four hours, and he spent another four hours, talking to Putin. Later on the day, at a press conference Kerry announced that he and Putin had agreed on the need to pressure Damascus and the opposition over the power transition.

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The State Secretary added that Moscow and Washington also agreed that a draft constitution is needed in Syria to complete the transition of power by August 2016. In turn, Sergei Lavrov reaffirmed his commitment to organize direct talks between Damascus and the opposition.

Nevertheless, during the Moscow talks Russia and the US failed to reach a compromise on Assad’s future, the article added.

The fact that the Geneva peace process is continuing is positive though, Elena Suponina, an expert on the Middle East, told RIA Novosti. A document of 12 points has been worked out, and this could be regarded as positive results.

She noted that the document does not bring up the political future of Bashar Assad.

"This is what Russia has insisted on – to take this problem off the table and focus efforts on the humanitarian crisis and the fight against terrorism," she said.

Russian President Vladimir Putin, right, and US Secretary of State John Kerry during a meeting in the Kremlin - Sputnik International
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At the same time, parties to the Geneva talks understand that the US and Russia are playing the key role in the Syrian settlement, the analyst pointed out. The negotiations have been suspended because their participants are waiting for a US-Russia decision.

"We can say that the future of the intra-Syrian talks is being determined in Moscow," Suponina said.

As for Syrian Kurds in the talks, their representatives as well as Moscow are insisting on their participation in the talks. But this has been opposed by both Damascus and the opposition.

"These obstacles will remain in place, but at the same time the future of Syria cannot be discussed without Kurds," she added.

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