Why the European Union Has No Power in the Middle East

All this, says geopolitical analyst Francois Gere, is exacerbated by growing political and social divisions within the continent.

Speaking to France's Atlantico news website and asked to comment on Monday's meeting of European foreign ministers to discuss the prospects for a common "regional strategy" on Syria, Iraq and the threat posed by Daesh terror, Gere, the founder and president of the French Institute for Strategic Analysis, suggested that such a strategy is virtually impossible to implement given the EU's inherent structural limitations.

"The EU has neither a common diplomacy nor an armed forces which could be used in operations. As a result, Brussels is confined to the instruments of 'soft power'," the analyst noted.

At the same time, the analyst added, "the war in Syria is extremely complex, as evidenced by the difficulties faced by foreign powers trying to establish a diplomatic dialogue there over the last four years."

EU member states do not even have a consolidated opinion as to what position the supranational union should take with regard to the Russian intervention in support of Syrian President Bashar Assad, the analyst recalled, with leaders in Northern and Eastern Europe more concerned about 'Russian aggression' in Europe than the situation in the Middle East.

Asked whether Brussels could at least come up with a consolidated position on fighting Daesh, Gere lamented that again, "the EU can only follow the initiatives of its member states; they are the ones who hold sovereignty over the actions and the tools used in the military sphere."

At the same time, "because some EU states categorically refuse to engage in any dialogue with Syria, the EU cannot take initiatives in that direction. The EU can [only] provide funds for refugees, humanitarian organizations in Syria, Iraq and those neighboring countries hosting these displaced persons, [including] Turkey, Jordan, and Lebanon."

Commenting on Brussels' seeming inability to formulate an effective common strategy for fighting Daesh, despite the obvious threat posed by the terrorist group, Gere noted that the EU as an institution is limited in what it can do to respond.

"The terror attacks in 2015-2016 in France, Belgium and Denmark demonstrated the seriousness of the threat…[EU Counter-terrorism coordinator] Gilles de Kerchove regularly warns against multiple attacks, including cyber terror, which could take place in the future." Still, "the response is primarily national and sometimes multilateral, without being truly European."

The EU has several counter-terror mechanisms, including Europol and Eurojust, "which can be effective, so long as the security services of national governments agree to fully cooperate by providing the necessary information. An awareness of the threat of terrorism has eventually led to the adoption of a package of measures aimed at identifying airline passengers. This is of course an important step, but probably not a miracle solution, [because] the terrorists at Brussels' Airport did not buy airline tickets!"

"In the financial area, the EU can strengthen the system of control of payments and financial transfers. Same thing for the sale of firearms (registration, traceability). Finally, in accordance with the recommendations from December 2015, the EU can establish a national control system on EU citizen 'foreign fighters' who might travel to conflict zones."

"The final component," Gere suggests, "is the fight against radicalization and jihadist propaganda." Unfortunately, so far, "the EU has refused to create such a counter-propaganda mechanism, both for ethical reasons, and because some members want to include perceived Russian propaganda in the scope of this mechanism. Progress on this this largely political problem can take place only if there is a focus on radical Islam."

Asked by Atlantico whether EU governments could find the tools to deal with the migrant crisis associated with the crisis in the Middle East, Gere emphasized that ultimately, migrant flows "will be weakened not only after the return of peace in Syria, but also lasting stabilization in Libya. Here the main task is to achieve unity among the 28 EU member states, and that prospect is still remote."

At the same time, the analyst added, "there are no solutions without Turkey, but the twisted game of President Erdogan, who faces increasing criticism for his dictatorial tendencies, also does not contribute to agreement within the EU. We must negotiate, but without giving in to conditions close to blackmail."