Syria's Future Even Worse Than One Can Imagine if 'Moderate' Rebels Topple Assad

© AFP 2023 / Omar haj kadourFighters from the former Al-Nusra Front -- renamed Fateh al-Sham Front after breaking from Al-Qaeda -- advance at an armament school after they announced they seiged control of two military academies and a third military position on August 6, 2016, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said
Fighters from the former Al-Nusra Front -- renamed Fateh al-Sham Front after breaking from Al-Qaeda -- advance at an armament school after they announced they seiged control of two military academies and a third military position on August 6, 2016, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said - Sputnik International
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Those who are calling for ousting Syrian President Bashar al-Assad have so far failed to articulate any realistic plan for what would happen to Syria if Assad resigns. The major flaw in their strategy is that Syria would end up in worse hands, if the legitimate Syrian leader steps down.

The lessons of Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya have not been learned by those who call for bringing down Bashar al-Assad and forcing the Russian military to leave the Syrian theatre of war, UK-based American columnist and author Craig Sams stresses.

"The US, Saudi, Turkish and Qatari passion for regime change in Syria had its roots in a strategy to weaken Iranian influence in the Middle East. It has gone badly wrong," Sams writes in his letter published by The Financial Times.

A state flag of the Syrian Arab Republic by an Orthodox church in an old Christian block of Aleppo, Syria - Sputnik International
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"The majority of Syrians are not fundamentalists in the pay of external players but people who support a secular society. They are Sunni, Shia, Christian, Druze, Kurd, Alawite, Ismaili, Yazidi and include the million refugees who have fled the conflict in Iraq. To the majority of the rebel forces these people are all 'apostates' and thus candidates for beheading, enslavement and forced conversion," the author underscores.

Sams argues that if Assad is ousted the most extreme al-Qaeda and Daesh (ISIS/ISIL) elements would take over the reins of the country transforming it into a "fundamentalist terror state."

He also calls attention to the fact that the much-discussed "bloodbath" has not materialized. Sams recalls that Syria has a five-year history of settlements which allowed "rebels" to escape urban territories, like it happened in Homs, Talkalakh, some Damascus suburbs and other towns and villages.

"We should be careful what we wish for before calling for sanctions with no strategy in place for when the Russians go home and the Assad government collapses," he warns.

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For his part, Robert E. Hunter, a former US ambassador to NATO and former National Security Council official, turned the spotlight on what he called "the critical mistake the Obama administration" in Syria in his letter to The Washington Post entitled "The United States can take out Assad, but at what cost?"

According to Hunter, the Obama administration officials and some US military experts have so far failed to offer a realistic plan "for what would happen in Syria after the ousting of President Bashar al-Assad."

The former US ambassador stresses that there "must be a means" to protect Syrian ethnic and religious minorities, but such a means "does not exist in anything the United States and others who want peace propose to do."

By calling for Assad's ousting US policymakers are merely playing into regional Sunni states' hands and risk becoming "a cat's-paw for others' ambitions."  

Syrian volunteers and their relatives wave the national flag and portraits of President Bashar al-Assad as they celebrate at the end of a paramilitary training conducted by the Syrian army in al-Qtaifeh, 50 kms north of the capital Damascus on February 22, 2016 - Sputnik International
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Dotting the i's and crossing the t's in his October interview with Reuters Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump repeated that his strategy in Syria would be focused on defeating Daesh rather than ousting President Assad, if he wins the election.

"Assad is secondary, to me, to ISIS [Daesh]," Trump said, as cited by the Los Angeles Times, "What we should do is focus on ISIS. We should not be focusing on Syria."

Similarly, during the final presidential debate with his opponent Hillary Clinton, Trump emphasized that if the Syrian opposition is successful in ousting Assad the country could end up in worse hands.

"We are backing rebels — we don't know who the rebels are. If they ever did overthrow Assad… you may very well end up with worse than Assad," Trump explained.

Speaking to Sputnik, US Congressman Dana Rohrabacher highlighted that the attempts to increase military support to rebels in an effort topple Syrian President Assad will only boost extremist forces and threaten global security.

"This has been a fiasco, an Obama-Clinton fiasco in terms of helping groups against Assad who in the end will be actually strengthening the forces of radical Islamic terrorism that threaten all of us," Rohrabacher told Sputnik.

Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev underscored that the collapse of the Syrian state should not be allowed.

"The main thing is to make sure that Syria has a predictable future and can exist as a self-sufficient, independent state rather than disintegrate into a number of terrorist enclaves, something that, regrettably, has happened to Libya and some other countries in the Middle East," Medvedev said Friday, during his interview with the China Central Television (CCTV).

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