"We are seeing maybe a fifth of countries having financial sectors that are beginning to experience stress, and looking 12 to 18 months out… the banks will be under some pressure," Nolan stated. "Profits will be falling, non-performing loans will be rising."
"A lot of lending is concentrated in the export sectors that are getting squeezed. Financially strapped governments are not paying their suppliers, who in turn are not servicing their debts to banks," Nolan said.
Nolan noted that the IMF has yet to see a big increase in countries seeking aid, but he added, "Not yet."
He mentioned Mozambique, Yemen, Malawi and Madagascar as examples.
Nolan's remarks coincided with the release of an IMF report on the economic outlook for about 60 of the world's poorest nations.