Syrians 'Will Support Whoever Delivers Them From the Evils of War'

"What the [Syrian] people want is peace," he said. "What they don't want is ongoing fighting. They will join whoever delivers them from the evils of war."

Hiltermann further said that rebel groups will be forced to listen to the people regardless of what their agenda is.

"What people want is to have peace in their areas. … And then the rebels will have to follow suit. They will follow the pressure of the people. If the political talks are serious and lead to serious results, then I think you will see a shift towards the groups that are willing to talk politics and the ones that pursue violence [will be marginalized]. If, however, the political talks fail or are not seen to be serious, then the militant groups are going to be empowered," the analyst asserted.

Hiltermann commented on the new alliance of radical factions, titled Hayyat Tahrir al-Sham. The group was formed on January 28 and includes Jabhat Fateh al-Sham, previously known as al-Nusra Front, the Ansar al-Din Front, Jaysh al-Sunna, Liwa al-Haqq and the Nour al-Din al-Zenki Movement. Some radical members of Ahrar al-Sham have also joined the new bloc.

In their first video address, Hayyat Tahrir al-Sham leaders pledged to take the entire country under control. 

"Every single opponent of the Syrian regime in the past six years has said that. So there is absolutely no change in terms of the rhetoric of any of the rebel parties. Obviously, they want to defeat the regime, replace it and gain every inch of Syrian territory that they can. Whether that's realistic is an entirely different question. The insurgents clearly at the moment are on the back foot and are losing territory, not gaining it. So this may be a long-term objective," the analyst said.

Hiltermann further suggested that the Astana talks have changed the dynamics of the Syrian conflict, forcing rebels to decide whether they are willing to join radical groups that want to continue fighting or those who are ready to engage in political talks.

"There is a real internal struggle going on within the various rebel groups about which direction to take," the analyst explained. This is not a PR move, because these groups "face a very serious and fateful choice right now. The risks are high either way."

In Hiltermann's opinion, this choice could have a major impact on the "shape" of the Syrian War.

The analyst also urged Washington and Moscow to reach common ground on resolving the years-long crisis.

"Russia and the United States with the help of Turkey and Iran need to find a new vision for Syria and forge a deal. That is the only way forward," he said. "Then the Syrians themselves, the ones who are willing to pursue the political process, need to figure out what the new Syria would look."

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