"Because of the inertia necessary for legally withdrawing from the COP-21 agreement, it may take up to 4 years before the US is actually out of the agreement. In the meantime, this will be election time for the US presidency, with a possibly more environmentally-friendly president who would come into power and reverse Trump’s decision," Martin Beniston, the director of the Institute for Environmental Sciences (ISE) at the University of Geneva told Sputnik.
Trump's announcement, which was a fulfilment of a key campaign pledge, drew disappointment from his European allies, political rivals, and the scientific community.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel expressed regret about his decision in phone talks with Trump and confirmed Germany's commitment to the Paris accord, while Italian Prime Minister Paolo Gentiloni and French President Emmanuel Macron issued a joint statement to express regret over the move.
According to scientific research published in the wake of the US leader's decision, the Earth may be affected by more dangerous levels of warming sooner after Trump’s decision due to the fact that the United States is the world's second largest emitter of greenhouse gases contributing to rising temperatures and extreme weather.
Cary Coglianese, an expert on regulatory policy and the editor of the book "Does Regulation Kill Jobs?" agreed that withdrawing from the Paris agreement was largely a symbolic gesture. However, in his interview with Sputnik the expert said that while this move would not help deliver the economic benefits that the administration claimed it would bring, it would look like bold action.
"For the White House facing many challenges, bold-looking action where the president doesn't need Congress must have its appeal," he stated.
According Coglianese, pulling out of the Paris agreement can help Trump to divert attention from the administration’s difficulties such as delivering on tax reform, health care legislation and immigration policy.
"It offers the president’s supporters something visible — even while it risks undermining benefits from international cooperation and imposing significant long-term costs on all of America," he explained.
CONSEQUENCES FOR US JOB MARKET
Trump had his reasons for pulling out of the agreement saying that this accord is "unfair" and would "effectively decapitate" the American coal industry and cost millions of US jobs.
Martin Beniston believes that the US leader’s decision may, on the contrary, lead to more job losses, because the "green economy" and investments in renewable energy technologies are creating much more opportunities and jobs than the coal industry.
According to the expert, the US coal sector will not benefit much from Trump’s move as it was mostly going bankrupt already many years ago, independently of the climate issues.
"Investments in coal and the re-opening of outdated coal-fired electricity-power stations with outdated technologies will not be economically-viable, and private-industry is unlikely to invest in such technologies any more. It is as if we were to go back to oil lamps like in the 19th century when we are now in the age of LEDs and low-energy light-bulbs," he stressed.
Cary Coglianese agreed that backing out of the Paris agreement is unlikely to bring back jobs lost over the years in the coal industry as those jobs have declined for years due to changes in technology and due to market competition from natural gas, a less carbon-intensive source of energy.
WILL US WITHDRAWAL TRIGGER DOMINO EFFECT?
Although the Paris accord was lauded and supported by many countries, Martin Beniston expressed concern that it could trigger a domino effect among states that had previously voiced their concerns with the existing agreement.
Both experts agreed, however, that the United States could experience the real cost of climate change as it is already imposing economic harm.
"The costs to worry about are those from not addressing climate change: more severe hurricanes and flooding, reduced agricultural yields, increased diseases, and other negative impacts on Americans’ way of life," Coglianese said.
Beniston, in turn, pointed that Trump’s decision meant the United States was giving up its leadership surrendering its spot as a world leader on science and technology to other countries like China or the European Union, which would isolate the country in many respects.
On Thursday, Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Hua Chunying reaffirmed at a press briefing that China highly appreciates the Paris agreement on combating climate change and will continue to participate in the deal regardless of other countries’ positions on the issue.
The Paris climate agreement within the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, championed by former US President Barack Obama, was signed in 2015 by 194 countries and has been ratified by 143 signatories. It aims to hold the increase in average global temperature to below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial level by reducing greenhouse gas emissions, with all the signatory states agreeing to reduce or limit their greenhouse gas emissions.