The ultimatum for Qatar consists of 13 demands and the key clauses are considered to be ending support for the Muslim Brotherhood, reducing relations with Iran and shutting the Al Jazeera TV channel. The demands were presented on June 22 and Doha was given 10 days to give the response. The original deadline was due to expire on Sunday, but the countries agreed to extend it for another 48 hours.
"Qatar has no choice but to reject the demands in their totality. This is because taken in their totality the 'demands' directly impact on the sovereignty that any modern state can expect to enjoy," Professor Beverley Milton-Edwards, Visiting Fellow at Brookings Doha Center, said.
Courtney Freer, a Research Officer at the LSE Kuwait Programme, also believes that the demands are too extreme to be accepted which undermines the negotiating process.
"In regards to the demands, there’s not really a middle ground. Shutting Al Jazeera and severing ties with Iran, that’s not something that can be done halfway," she explained.
Both analysts agree that for Qatar this crisis has turned into a situation when Doha is forced to protect its right for independent policy.
Losing Face
Reacting to the list of demands, Qatar said that it cannot be called either reasonable or actionable and asked for international support. Qatar’s foreign minister met with non-permanent members of the UNSA and urged them to publicly support lifting of the blockade. During a recent press-conference he also stated the list of demands is "made to be rejected."
This hardline stance that the sides adopted could further complicated the talks, according to Freer, as backing down in this situation could be seen as a sign of weakness.
"It would be difficult for them to get out this without losing face. A compromise would lead to either of the side looking not serious about defending what they consider sovereignty and security," she elaborated.
Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Egypt accuse Qatar of funding terrorism and meddling into their internal affairs. These countries insist that their actions are meant to ensure stability and security of the region in the future. Doha rejects the accusations calling the blockade illegal.
Freer stated that indeed the meeting parties will discuss the response to the Qatar crisis, but it is also organized for a symbolic purpose because the boycotting nations want to show that their alliance is strong and solid as ever. "I think they are more meeting for the sustained unity of their cause in this instance," she added.
Implications and Fallout
The boycotting nations threatened to impose further sanctions if Doha doesn't comply with the demands but the measures are not specified. Analysts are saying the most likely repercussion would be Arab nations agreeing to expel Qatar from the GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council).
"They may seek to impact on trade relations that other countries enjoy with it. There is also the possibility that they might threaten to eject Qatar from the GCC," Milton-Edwards suggested.
The original list of demands, if complied with, would impact Qatar’s economy, foreign policy and social sphere.
The list of demands also puts further financial pressure on Doha asking Qatar to pay compensation for what is vaguely described as loss of life and other financial losses that are allegedly caused by the actions of Qatar and its policies in the recent years.
According to the terms put forward by the Arab nations, Qatar will be monitored for compliance for a period of ten years.
It’s widely believed that the ongoing conflict is unlikely to be resolved in the short-term period as the divisions run deep. Experts say that the nature of the conflict and how it’s being handled are poised to have a serious impact on the whole region.
"The independence and sovereignty of political decision-making within states will surely be shaken for the foreseeable future," Milton-Edwards explained.
According to Freer, there are concerns that the stalemate could further deteriorate as there’s no "end in sight" and more countries ultimately will be forced to take sides. "Everyone will get dragged into this long-term conflict, in this long-term refusal to come together and compromise," she concluded.
Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Egypt broke off diplomatic relations and communication with Qatar on June 5, accusing it of supporting terrorism and interfering in their internal affairs. Later, the Maldives, Mauritius, and Mauritania also announced the severance of diplomatic relations. Jordan and Djibouti reduced the level of their diplomatic missions in Qatar.
