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Why Libyan Ceasefire Deal 'Looks Great on Paper but Not 'Too Much on the Ground'

© REUTERS / Philippe WojazerFrench President Emmanuel Macron stands between Libyan Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj (L), and General Khalifa Haftar (R), commander in the Libyan National Army (LNA), who shake hands after talks over a political deal to help end Libya’s crisis in La Celle-Saint-Cloud near Paris, France, July 25, 2017
French President Emmanuel Macron stands between Libyan Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj (L), and General Khalifa Haftar (R), commander in the Libyan National Army (LNA), who shake hands after talks over a political deal to help end Libya’s crisis in La Celle-Saint-Cloud near Paris, France, July 25, 2017 - Sputnik International
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Libya’s two main rival leaders, Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar and Fayez Al Sarraj, appear to have set aside their differences for a ceasefire pact. Libya expert Rhiannon Smith, however, explained to Sputnik Radio why "on paper a ceasefire looks great but on the ground it does not mean too much."

Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar, Commander of the Libyan National Army (LNA) in eastern Libya and Fayez Al Sarraj, the Prime Minister of Libya’s Tripoli-based Government of National Accord (GNA) appear to have made progress after agreeing on a ceasefire and elections for next year during a recent meeting hosted by French President Emmanuel Macron in Paris.

© REUTERS / The Egyptian PresidencyEgyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi (C) arrives at the opening of the Mohamed Najib military base, the graduation of new graduates from military colleges, and the celebration of the 65th anniversary of the July 23 revolution at El Hammam City in the North Coast, in Marsa Matrouh, Egypt, July 22, 2017 in this handout picture courtesy of the Egyptian Presidency
Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi (C) arrives at the opening of the Mohamed Najib military base, the graduation of new graduates from military colleges, and the celebration of the 65th anniversary of the July 23 revolution at El Hammam City in the North Coast, in Marsa Matrouh, Egypt, July 22, 2017 in this handout picture courtesy of the Egyptian Presidency - Sputnik International
Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi (C) arrives at the opening of the Mohamed Najib military base, the graduation of new graduates from military colleges, and the celebration of the 65th anniversary of the July 23 revolution at El Hammam City in the North Coast, in Marsa Matrouh, Egypt, July 22, 2017 in this handout picture courtesy of the Egyptian Presidency

In a separate development, neighboring Egypt opened a new military base close to the Libyan border. US-based private intelligence firm Soufan Group, which reported on the issue, noted that "the size and location of the base are a testament to the significance of the challenge across the border in Libya, which the Egyptian government considers both a serious national security threat, and an opportunity for strategic expansion."

Sputnik Radio discussed the developments with Rhiannon Smith, Managing Director of the US-registered consulting company Libya-Analysis, who explained how these two events are interconnected and what the real significance of Egypt's recent move is.

"The opening of a new military base shows Egypt's real concern over its security along its vast border with Libya. Egypt shares a long border with Libya and any kind of destabilization in security in Libya could easily affect Egypt. With regards to Libyan General Khalifa Haftar, who holds military power in eastern Libya, it means that Egypt really sees him as an ally who can help protect Egypt's interests in the east and prevent Egyptian fighters from potentially using Libyan space to train or to conduct attacks. It will also prevent any insecurity in Libya from coming across into Egypt," she told Sputnik.

Marshal Khalifa Haftar, chief of the so-called Libyan National Army, leaves the main building of Russia's Foreign Ministry after a meeting with Russian Minister of Foreign Affairs in Moscow on November 29, 2016 - Sputnik International
Egypt, Libyan General Form Alliance, Challenge Fragile US-Backed Gov’t
With regards to the UN-backed government in Tripoli, she said, the new Egyptian base is not so much of a challenge to them. It is more of a highlight that eastern Libya is more of a concern to Egypt rather than Tripoli in the west, which is a thousand miles away from the Egyptian border.

Formally, Egypt does recognize the Government of National Accord, as do many international actors, the expert said.  They also support the Libyan Political Agreement, which is the current peace framework. However, even though they formally support these structures, they are very much aligned with Khalifa Haftar in the east and they provide him with a  variety of military and financial support to him.

© REUTERS / The Egyptian PresidencyMilitary students stand at attention to mark the opening of the Mohamed Najib military base, the graduation of new graduates from military colleges, and the celebration of the 65th anniversary of the July 23 revolution at El Hammam City in the North Coast, in Marsa Matrouh, Egypt, July 22, 2017 in this handout picture courtesy of the Egyptian Presidency
Military students stand at attention to mark the opening of the Mohamed Najib military base, the graduation of new graduates from military colleges, and the celebration of the 65th anniversary of the July 23 revolution at El Hammam City in the North Coast, in Marsa Matrouh, Egypt, July 22, 2017 in this handout picture courtesy of the Egyptian Presidency - Sputnik International
Military students stand at attention to mark the opening of the Mohamed Najib military base, the graduation of new graduates from military colleges, and the celebration of the 65th anniversary of the July 23 revolution at El Hammam City in the North Coast, in Marsa Matrouh, Egypt, July 22, 2017 in this handout picture courtesy of the Egyptian Presidency

The main reason is that Khalifa Haftar is a kind of authoritarian strong man who he has been fighting against terrorists. These include not only jihadist groups such as Daesh and others, but also various Islamist military groups who oppose him. This really aligns with the strong anti-terror approach of Egypt's President al-Sisi, therefore Egypt really sees in Haftar someone who will protect their interests and who they feel would put security over democratic freedom; this aligns with Egypt.

Rhiannon Smith also commented on how it is interconnected with the deal the two rival leaders recently made in Paris.

Libya's Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj of the U.N.-backed government, left, France's President Emmanuel Macron, center, and General Khalifa Hifter of the Egyptian-backed commander of Libya's self-styled national army shake hands listen to France's President Emmanuel Macron after a declaration at the Chateau of the La Celle-Saint-Cloud, west of Paris, France, Tuesday, July 25, 2017. - Sputnik International
Macron the Mediator: French President Trying to Broker Peace in Libya
"The move of Egypt has already made a huge difference to Libya. Last week we saw Khalifa Haftar invited by French President Macron to Paris to have peace talks with Fayez Al Sarraj, who is the head of the UN-backed government in Tripoli. For a long time Haftar has refused to engage in dialogue. He was also not in the position to be invited. He is a military General, not a political figure. However Haftar has a snowballing effect of military and political support from Egypt and others. He has really raised his profile on the international arena. And this snowballing effect of legitimacy has really led to Haftar being at the table in Paris," she explained.

"I think that in terms of where Haftar is on international stage and in terms of his political legitimacy, he has strengthened a great deal," she added.

However the expert explained what the danger of that is: it means that there is far less reason for Khalifa Haftar to compromise, to negotiate and he may well be strengthened to continue his military campaign, as he has always said he believes in military solutions rather than political ones.

With regards to the signed ceasefire deal, she noted that "although Haftar and Sarraj agreed to a ceasefire, however, the forces they control are not actually engaged in a direct conflict anywhere in Libya at this point. However, there is a myriad of different competing military and political factions in Libya, who are not always represented by these two political figures."

Hence, the Libyan ceasefire deal "looks great on paper but not too much on the ground," she finally concluded.

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