Sputnik discussed the issue with Dr. Nikos Skoutaris, an expert in conflict resolution and European Union law at the University of East Anglia.
Sputnik: What is your take on the report suggesting that the UK is secretly considering entering a customs union with the EU?
Dr. Nikos Skoutaris: Of course this report is quite new, but one has to consider the fact that when Prime Minister Theresa May actually spelled out in her Lancaster House speech the post Brexit policy of the UK, she already said that she wants to be out of the customs union, but she wants to have a customs arrangement with the EU, so I do believe that UK is considering that option as well.
READ MORE: British Manufacturers Call for UK to Stay in EU Customs Union
Sputnik: What do you think that would look like? How would that differ from just getting some other deal?
Dr. Nikos Skoutaris: Having a customs union would mean that there would be less of a need to actually have extensive customs, also the UK will not be inundated with customs laws, the queues in Dover and other places in order to check customs, to put up tariffs and also to check the regulations. The most important thing from a trade point of view would be that the UK would have less autonomy to strike its own free trade deals with the rest of the world because it would have to actually have talked to the EU customs tariffs and the EU regulations in the areas where the customs union will cover, so the UK will have less autonomy, less independence to strike free trade deals with the rest of the world.
Sputnik: Theresa May previously insisted that the UK was going to leave the customs union, do you think that they will still leave the customs union to form another customs union, what are we supposed to make of this?
Dr. Nikos Skoutaris: Theresa May is actually walking a very tight rope. On the one hand of course one of the things that the Brexiteers want is to get out of the customs union because their vision is that they want to be a free trading nation that would make its own free trade arrangements with the rest of the world, on the other hand, if they leave the customs union this creates very important problems, especially on the Irish border. So in a way what Theresa May is trying to do is she wants to have the best of both worlds. She wants on the one hand to be able to avoid the problems that leaving customs union would mean but at the same time she wants to keep the independence of actually signing trade deals with the rest of the world, so it's almost an impossible compromise to make but that's what she's trying to do at the moment.
Sputnik: Do you actually think this would entail leaving and then rethinking or renegotiating the customs union between the EU and the UK, anew?
Sputnik: So get a divorce and then start living together?
Dr. Nikos Skoutaris: Kind of, but while they're still living in the same house, because the transition period goes for 20 months, the legal regime will not be that different, but the UK will be out of the EU institutions.
Sputnik: You've mentioned the Irish border, can you comment on this from the stand point of how could this play out on the issue of the Northern Irish border?
Dr. Nikos Skoutaris: The biggest problem of living like a subunion will be the Irish border. To give you an example of how difficult it could be to implement, think about this. There's a village somewhere in Northern Ireland called Pettigo, half of this village is within the UK, the other half of this village is within the Republic of Ireland. If the UK leaves the customs union this would mean that if you want to actually trade goods from one side of this village to the other side of this village there must be some kind of customs tax in order to have relevant tariffs to be imposed and also to make sure that the relevant goods are following the EU regulations or the UK regulations.
I'm not saying the situation will be unsolvable there will be some kind of solution, but clearly a customs border in Northern Ireland will create important practical difficulties and also given the social dynamics of this post conflict (4.25?) society, it’s a society that's only 20 years after this agreement (The Good Friday Agreement), this can create social tensions because part of Northern Ireland population, the nationalists-republicans-catholics will feel that their accesses to the Republic of Ireland has somehow been stopped, somehow hindered, so a customs border in Northern Ireland will create important practical and also social problems in this part of the world.
Sputnik: How is this going to affect Theresa May's position in leadership right now, because she is on shaky ground and she's facing a lot of criticism and scrutiny?
Dr. Nikos Skoutaris: It seems that Theresa May is at the moment at one of her weakest points, it's important to point out that publicly her International Trade Secretary, Dr. Liam Fox, has ruled out any possibility of a customs union with EU or any customs union with EU, so it seems that her cabinet has important internal conflicts, clashes, disagreements. Taking also into account that she doesn't have a majority in the House of Commons, she's actually supported by the Democratic Unionist Party of Northern Ireland that believes in a very hard form of Brexit, so it's very difficult to see how she going to survive until the end of this process without some kind of renegotiation of her partnership with the other members of the cabinet.
The views and opinions expressed by Nikos Skoutaris are those of the speaker and do not necessarily reflect those of Sputnik.
