Chemical Attack in Aleppo: What May Happen Next?

Military Scenario

"The Americans are occupying the eastern part of the Euphrates River absolutely illegally, so they will strengthen their presence, organise closer cooperation with Turkey and control the situation in Idlib. Washington continues to support the al-Nusra Front* terrorists providing them with intelligence and preventing counterterrorism operations in the region. The tension is mounting," the analyst said.

"We can assume that in the event of a new round of aggression against the Syrian government, the Russian S-300s could be attacked by both the US and Israel. Now, these systems are a restraint factor, ensuring an immediate response and being dangerous and uncomfortable to US policy. Washington contributes to Idlib's failure to carry out military operations as well as disrupting a plan to disarm terrorists, which could affect Russian-Turkish relations, resulting in the failure of the Astana negotiations".

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"At the same time, the US is presenting Iran as an international threat, although Tehran is playing a major role in stabilising the situation in Syria. This is necessary so that foreign countries have a pretext to deploy their forces in Syria," Salah al Hashawati told Sputnik. 

Non-Military Scenario

In addition to the military scenario, the US has another plan consisting of three directions.

1. International organisations. "First, the Americans will put pressure on the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW), and try to turn it into a weapon of their own to use it against Syria and Russia. It will be possible to link the investigation of the Skripal case to the Aleppo attacks and declare that it was Russia who supplied chemical weapons to Damascus," the analyst explained, adding that this could be a convenient excuse for new sanctions against Russia.
2. Economy. According to the expert, the second aspect is economic pressure on Syria. "The US is struggling to cut Damascus's chances of recovering after the war. They introduce sanctions against companies that supply Iranian oil to Syria, seek to fragment the country's economic system, creating different conditions for different regions of Syria. If resource-rich regions don't provide the state with money, it won't be able to rebuild the country. So, Syria's eastern provinces are not subject to an economic blockade; instead some independent administrative and economic systems are being created there," Salah al Hashawati said.
3. Politics. As for the political aspect of the war against the Syrian government, the expert emphasised the issue of creating a new constitution. "The United States will try to get as many of its candidates on the Constitutional Council as possible so that Syria's new main document is drafted in the most favourable way for them." Washington needs a divided Syria, consisting of independent parts under the same name.

Why Would Americans Need a Divided Syria?

"The Americans want to make Syria a headache for Russia," Salah al-Hashawati told Sputnik, "according to this scenario, the crisis there should be permanent, like an open wound".

As far as advantages are concerned, a divided Syria guarantees several acquisitions.

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"Here there are interests of Israel, which aims to build a railway from the Gulf countries to Israel's Mediterranean ports to collect their share of the oil revenue. Besides, it will be possible to build a railway across Syria that could be advantageous for all the countries of the region. In addition, Syria would become a neutral zone to maintain international conflicts, which is interesting for all ‘quarrelsome' countries," the analyst concluded.

The views and opinions expressed by the speaker do not necessarily reflect those of Sputnik.

*Al-Nusra Front is a terrorist group banned in Russia