Biden vs Trump in 2020 Would be Exceedingly Close Race - Professor

Sputnik: Former US Vice President Joe Biden has announced that he will seek the Democratic Party’s nomination for the 2020 US presidential election. What do you think about this decision?

David Schultz: It’s not a surprise. Joe Biden wanted to run three years ago; he’s been rumoured to run for quite a while. I think he perceives that he has the best chance of any of the Democrats who are running; and public opinion polls indicate that with entering the race he will be the front runner for the Democrats in terms of challenging Donald Trump. So, he brings with him name recognition, experience and a lot of support within the Democratic Party. So, he is not a surprise running, and the question now is whether, can he translate all that support that he has and be a viable candidate given some of the liability that he may also have running as the president of the United States.

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Sputnik: My second question is about the support from the Democratic Party because his views are considered to be liberal whereas the Democratic Party is falling more into the centre-right and conservative agenda. How much real support can he get?

David Schultz: Actually, we can reverse this here. It’s that in many ways the party is torn; the party has a wing that has Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, for example, which is moving to the left. Joe Biden is actually a little bit more towards the centre. And so, the real question is he can attract the liberal base of the party which seems to be very active right now, because he is viewed as more of an Obama-person and the Democratic Party has moved further to the left since Obama was president. I think that’s his first challenge. The second challenge for him is the perception that he may be too old as a nominee and so people are saying he is out of touch. His third challenge is the fact that some allegations have surfaced recently regarding him being, perhaps, touching people inappropriately or being too, let’s say, physical of a person; and the question is will that hurt him in terms of his support among women.

Sputnik: In your opinion, what can be the possible outcome of the presidential race? Can we expect the same results as in 2016?

David Schultz: Well, right now I would say that with a very divided Democratic Party Donald Trump is probably the slight favourite to win. I think the real issue is going to be for the Democrats is how they narrow a field of twenty candidates and rally behind one person and one narrative. And second, even though Trump is tremendously unpopular, his base is very united; and the challenge for Democrats would be not to just mobilise against Donald Trump but also in a process to come up with a strategy and a candidate who can beat Trump in 2020. So, right now, again, I put Trump as the slight favourite, but the Democrats have to figure out how to unify around somebody and a message to be able to beat him.

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Sputnik: One of Biden’s main competitors in the Democratic Party is Bernie Sanders. In your view, who has the main ground here?

David Schultz: Right now I think – and this is a challenge – it’s equally divided. Bernie Sanders represents the most liberal wing of the party; Joe Biden represents the establishment of the party. The Democratic Party, most of the establishment, does not like Bernie Sanders because of how far he is politically to the left, at least in the United States, and how he is really not a Democrat, he is still independent. So I think the real battle is going to be at this point between the establishment of the Democratic Party and a rising new base of people who support Bernie Sanders. And how that’s going to play out, and how that’s eventually going to get resolved is just not clear at this point.

Sputnik: Trump has also welcomed Joe Biden as his competitor in the elections. If both Trump and Biden end up as the candidates from their respective parties, what result can we expect next?

David Schultz: At this point many people are saying that Joe Biden might be one of the best candidates to run against Donald Trump. He appeals to the same white working class type of people that Donald Trump appealed to back three years ago and which he still has a strong grip on. So, it’s possible that this is a race where you would see the Democrats trying to run more competitively or hope that with Joe Biden they can run more competitively in the Mid-Western states such as Wisconsin, Michigan, and Ohio. It will be a very close race; Biden versus Trump will be an exceedingly close race, probably even closer than the Clinton-Trump race in 2016.

The views and opinions expressed in this article are solely those of speaker and do not necessarily reflect Sputnik's position.