Sputnik: The Palestinian Authority has halted all agreements with Israel. What practical consequences might the decision have?
Meir Litvak: The most important one is whether or not there will be security cooperation between the Palestinian security organisations and the Israeli security organisations against Hamas. In the past years, there has been significant, very thoughtful cooperation. The Palestinian Authority is very much afraid of Hamas; it's very much afraid of Hamas taking over the West Bank the way they've taken over Gaza.
The question is whether or not that will continue. Another issue is the question of customs. So far, products for the Palestinian Authority go from Israel, usually, the government collects the tariffs and then it's supposed to transfer them to the Palestinians.
Now there is a big dispute between the Palestinian Authority and Israel over the payment of pensions to the families of Palestinian terrorists, or fighters, who fought against Israel.
Israel imposed sanctions on the Palestinians; they refused fiscal cooperation on the budgetary issue. And this is a big question of what will happen here. What is significant is that if security cooperation stops, that will have major repercussions for both sides.
On the economic issue, it will certainly worsen the economic situation of the Palestinian Authority; and maybe it is done in order to increase pressure on the Arab community, on the world community to increase aid to the Palestinians. For sure, they are in a desperate situation.
Sputnik: Agreements with Israel signed in the 1990s are the basis for Palestinian self-governance. How might Abbas' decision impact the legitimacy of this self-governance?
Meir Litvak: The Palestinian Authority already suffers from legitimacy because there have been no elections since 2006. Secondly, there is a lot of frustration among Palestinians that it is totally unable to get anything from the Israelis, to make any progress towards Palestinian independence and to end the Israeli occupation.
So, already the Palestinian Authority has very low legitimacy and support; maybe they hope that by taking a more assertive position against Israel they would regain some of the popularity.
Sputnik: Could the move undermine Trump's "deal of the century"?
Meir Litvak: First of all, I think that the chances of "the deal of the century" for success are extremely minor, I'd say minimal. The Palestinian Authority is very much against Trump's plan; it's doing its best to undermine it, to foil it. There is no cooperation with Israel, no contacts and, of course, the chances of advancing Trump's plan even decreased from the very small chance they already had.
Sputnik: Do you expect an escalation in Gaza now?
Meir Litvak: No, because I think that neither Hamas nor Israel wants this escalation. On the contrary, I think that they are probably conducting secret negotiations on reaching some sort of long-term ceasefire. Qatar, for instance, brought a little bit more money to the people of Gaza with Israel's consent and support.
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So, there can be a flare-up of violence, but I don't think there will be a major escalation unless one party makes a major mistake; you misinterpret what the other is doing.
Let's say, there's a certain accident on the Gaza-Israel border, some rogue movement, a rocket which hits a kindergarten in Israel, that will have consequences. But aside from that, I think that Hamas and Israel are interested in reaching a long-term ceasefire.
Sputnik: Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas has made similar statements in the past but never implemented them. Do you think this time cancellation will come to fruition? Why?
Meir Litvak: I don't know, but you can say that maybe he feels more desperate than before; and maybe now there's no choice but to do it, to implement drastic measures in the hope that it will bring some change. Maybe he feels that he has nothing to lose anymore; maybe he thinks that other nations have totally abandoned the Palestinians.
I don't know, we cannot predict, but it could be that they adhere now to more desperate measures than before because of the very difficult situation of the Palestinian Authority.
Sputnik: The United States has blocked a UN Security Council proposal seeking condemnation of the Israeli demolitions in the West Bank. What further steps do you expect to see?
Meir Litvak: The Israeli government will probably continue its policies; there are now elections in Israel and what the government cares about first and foremost is elections. They do it to increase the popularity among the right-wing supporters.
I'm not sure it will bring another uprising in the West Bank, I doubt it; unless there's going to be a major surprise.
So, there will probably continue to be the same problematic situation for the time being. As for the United States, Trump and the United States can withdraw the Security Council measures; they cannot withdraw resolutions of the General Assembly. The resolutions of the General Assembly are usually symbolic.
As long as Trump is in office, there will probably continue to be the same situation. I doubt whether he will ever present his peace plan. And again, even if he presents it, the potential success of this plan is minimal. Nothing will come out of it.
Sputnik: Could this move help Abbas reconcile with Hamas?
Meir Litvak: Maybe. But the problem between Abbas and Hamas, the distrust among them, is very deep. What Abbas wants is that if there is reconciliation, the Palestinian Authority will get real power in Gaza, especially over military affairs, which Hamas refuses to do. And if Hamas agrees to a long-term ceasefire with Israel, it is even less likely to reconcile with Abbas.
So, I doubt very much that in the near future we will see reconciliation between Hamas and the Palestinian Authority. On the contrary, the longer this spat continues, the more difficult it becomes to heal it, to achieve reconciliation. So, I don't think that it's likely that there will be reconciliation in the near future.
The views and opinions expressed in the article are those of Meir Litvak and do not necessarily reflect those of Sputnik.
