The study examined 1,717 “local, regional and national non-pharmaceutical interventions” established in China, South Korea, Italy, Iran, France and the US. The researchers then used econometric methods to empirically determine the effects the anti-contagion policies had on infection rates.
“We estimate that across these six countries, interventions prevented or delayed on the order of 62 million confrmed cases, corresponding to averting roughly 530 million total infections,” the study’s abstract explains. The US in particular avoided 4.8 million confirmed cases, corresponding to about 60 million infections, according to the researchers.
“These findings may help inform whether or when these policies should be deployed, intensified, or lifted, and they can support decision-making in the other 180+ countries where COVID-19 has been reported,” the study adds.
The study’s results show that travel restrictions, business closures, shelter-in-place orders and other non-pharmaceutical interventions are greatly effective at saving lives during a pandemic.
“The last several months have been extraordinarily difficult, but through our individual sacrifices, people everywhere have each contributed to one of humanity’s greatest collective achievements,” lead author Solomon Hsiang said in a Monday news release. “I don’t think any human endeavor has ever saved so many lives in such a short period of time. There have been huge personal costs to staying home and canceling events, but the data show that each day made a profound difference. By using science and cooperating, we changed the course of history.”
The researchers also found that it generally took three weeks for policies to “achieve the full impact on the spread of COVID-19.”
All US states have begun lifting lockdown measures to varying degrees. Even New York, the state hit hardest by the respiratory illness, officially entered the first phase of reopening on Monday.
US President Donald Trump on Friday praised states like Florida, Georgia and South Carolina, which all adopted the earliest reopening plans.
“Look at what’s going on in Florida, it’s incredible,” Trump said at a news briefing. “If you look at so many different places that have opened up ... the ones that are most energetic about opening, they are doing tremendous business, and this is what these numbers are all about.”
The latest data by Worldometer reveals that more than 7 million cases of COVID-19 have been confirmed worldwide, and more than 407,000 people have died as a result.
