According to Ian Lipkin, a professor of epidemiology and director of the Center for Infection and Immunity at Columbia University, a second wave can only take place once a virus has disappeared and then returned or if a new variant of the virus appears.
“The recent increase in cases does not reflect either,” Lipkin noted.
Even though New York state, for instance, which became the US epicenter of the disease in March, is experiencing a decline in COVID-19 cases, other states like Texas, Florida and Arizona are currently experiencing surges in case numbers. John Hopkins University data shows that around 20,000 new COVID-19 cases are being confirmed in the US every day.
Although many states did experience a “first-wave plateau,” many of them haven’t experienced “a clear decline for many weeks,” Nicholas Reich, a professor of biostatistics and epidemiology at the University of Massachusetts, Amherst, pointed out.
Arizona’s Department of Health reported 1,412 new cases on Thursday; the number of cases in the state has almost doubled since Memorial Day on May 25. In Texas, COVID-19 cases have surged by around 32% since Memorial Day, according to state data.
Former US Food and Drug Administration Commissioner Dr. Scott Gottlieb told CNBC’s “Squawk Box” on Thursday that states like Arizona and Texas “never really got rid of the first wave.”
“They weren’t really that hard hit relative to other states during February [and] March. They had some infection, they had persistent infection. Now we are starting to see it go up as they reopen.”
Marc Lipsitch, a professor of epidemiology at the Harvard School of Public Health, also told CNBC that it’s difficult to chalk up a rise in cases to a singular event, such as a protest, for instance.
“Transmissions occur, probably extra ones on a holiday like Memorial Day, which lead to cases and hospitalizations. All the activities we engage in affect that and thus affect whether say a particular transmission (John infected Sally) on Memorial Day or at a protest or wherever leads to Sally not infecting anyone else,” he said.
According to Lipkin, new COVID-19 cases can be expected to appear until there is a treatment or vaccine for the disease.
“Until we have a vaccine to prevent infection or drugs that can safely and efficiently mitigate disease, it is critical that we protect ourselves and our communities through physical distancing and the use of masks,” Lipkin noted.
Currently, there are at least 136 COVID-19 vaccines that are being researched and developed around the world, according to the World Health Organization. At least 10 of those drugs are undergoing clinical trials.
On Thursday, Beijing also reported the first new COVID-19 case in the country’s capital in nearly two months.
