The model shows that by October 1, deaths from the novel coronavirus in the US could be anywhere between 171,000 and 270,000, and the likely death toll is 201,129.
The prediction spiked by more than 30,000 deaths this week. As of Thursday, more than 117,000 Americans had died from the virus, and the death toll is continuing to increase by hundreds per day. The IHME cites “rising mobility and premature relaxation of social distancing in some states” as the main reasons behind the change to its prediction.
In a June 11 press briefing before the projected death toll was revised, IHME Director Dr. Christopher Murray commented on the timeline predicted by the model.
"Starting in the third week of August in our forecast at the national level, we see the daily death rate ... going up again, after having been declining since mid-April at the national level," he said. "That increase in daily deaths really starts to gather momentum from mid-September onwards."
"What's underlying that is two factors: The steady rise in contact rates, steady rise in mobility, and the likely continued relaxation of mandates over the course of the summer. Combined with the increasingly clear signal that seasonality is important," he added.
Murray also noted that public behavior could greatly impact the IHME’s projections.
"We're making a forecast, clearly what individuals choose to do can moderate that forecast," he said. "If mask use starts to go back up in states where it's not very high, that is likely to be very helpful. And if people avoid contacts with people outside their household ... that will also moderate the effect."
COVID-19 cases in New York, the US epicenter of the disease, continue to decrease. However, new American hotspots are emerging across the South and West. States like Florida, Alabama, California, Nevada, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina and Texas are seeing large spikes in cases.
The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) released updated guidelines last Friday to help people minimize their chances of infection.
"It's important that you and the people around you wear a cloth face covering when in public and particularly when it's difficult to stay 6 feet away from others consistently," the CDC noted.
The CDC also recommended that people bring their own food and drinks to cookouts, take stairs instead of elevators and wash their hands after using ATMs.
