Despite the White House's attempt to block the publication of Bolton's book, Judge Royce Lamberth of the DC District Court concluded last Saturday that though the former top aide's conduct "raises grave national security concerns", an injunction is not "an appropriate remedy".
Most juicy excerpts from the potentially scandalous opus have already found their way into the media, including claims that President Donald Trump asked the Chinese to help him win in 2020; was unaware of Britain's nuclear power status and is constantly being mocked by his entourage.
Why White House Failed to Ban Bolton's Memoir
"The First Amendment to the Constitution guarantees free speech, which permits Bolton to write the book", explains Gary Nordlinger, a professor at the Graduate School of Political Management at George Washington University.
According to him, this Constitutional right was behind Federal Judge Royce Lamberth's decision to deny the Trump administration's request to block its publication. In addition, the professor doesn’t agree that Bolton's memoir would be damaging to US national security: "International leaders already know Donald Trump's weaknesses and it is not like Bolton published the blueprints for the next generation of weapons systems", he says.
"In a free society, you can make dissemination of speech difficult but never impossible", echoes Richard Vatz, a distinguished professor of rhetoric and communication at Towson University, adding that the attempts to stop the book's publication are a "pseudo-issue".
It is not the first time that a former government official has divulged all sorts of things about a current president in a book while said president is still in office. Bob Beatty, a political science professor at Washburn University in Topeka, recollects that Donald Regan, a White House chief of staff from 1985 to 1987 "even said that President Ronald Reagan was influenced by an astrologer that his wife, Nancy, consulted to help her with choosing dates to schedule events".
Even national security concerns are hardly a stumbling block in revealing state secrets to the public, according to Beatty.
"The most influential case was the famous Pentagon Papers case during the Vietnam War", the political scientist highlights. "Essentially the Supreme Court ruled that the White House could not stop publication of classified material before it was published but there could be ramifications after it was published".
Bolton's Book Won't Hurt Trump's Campaign Much
Though the book has already made a lot of noise, the observers express doubts that the "bombshell" revelations will have a meaningful impact on Trump's re-election chances.
"I think the effect will be likely marginal", deems Richard Vatz. "On one hand Bolton's generally credible accusations that Trump is self-serving in statecraft is concerning to most voters, but his supporters are more likely to focus on the fact that in Bolton's eyes Trump is trying to extricate the United States from endless foreign entanglements, entanglements that Bolton thinks are critical but Trump supporters think are not and are destructively endless".
He presumes that the accusations of Trump's apparent ignorance can be rationalised by his supporters as Bolton "not understanding Trump's sarcasm".
"'Oh, are you a nuclear power?' he asks about the UK. Is that ignorance or taunting? Or did he actually say that?" Vatz asks rhetorically.
According to the professor, while Trump's ad hoc style of making foreign and domestic policy, as detailed in the book, "reinforces Democrats' panic" it at the same time reinvigorates "Trump supporters' confidence in the president that he is avoiding old decision-making paradigms".
"It is June: the book will add to the intensity of Trump haters and lovers – slightly a minus for the president is the most reasonable speculation", he believes.
For his part, Bob Beatty suggests that though Bolton's revelations will have little impact now they could have "a small, marginal impact late in the campaign".
"No doubt the race will tighten in the coming months, so the Bolton revelations, rather than having a direct impact on the race, could indirectly impact the race in the fall when Biden debates Trump and the issue is brought up - where it undoubtedly will - by Biden and his running mate in the presidential debates", he predicts.
At the same time, Beatty shreds the premise that the book may cost Trump GOP votes: "At this point the GOP by and large - both at the elite level and the mass level - seems to be supporting Trump 'come hell or high water'", the political scientist asserts.
"I have not as yet read all of the book, but I am well into it, and I will say this about it. For a man who appears so eager to appear patriotic he certainly gives a poor performance in practice. He excoriates Democrats for failing to impeach Donald Trump on the very grounds that he withheld from them. Indeed, Mr. Bolton actually 'sued' in a federal court of law so he wouldn’t have to testify before Adam Schiff’s impeachment committee, preferring instead to keep what he had to say private for the benefit of profit to be had from the publication of his book. Bolton is a shameless opportunist. He is certainly no patriot", Robert Harrington, writer and political analyst from the UK, opines, adding that Bolton "was and remains a war hawk and a bigot".
The analyst adds: "That said, what Bolton has to say about Donald Trump in the book certainly passes the sniff test. The Donald Trump he portrays is the one we have come to know: shallow, thin-skinned, ill-informed, self-dealing, incompetent, and out for his own advantage and no one else’s. Only a cesspool like today’s White House could produce a man like John Bolton, and, like it or not, because he was in the room, Bolton is the most qualified to tell that story".
Bolton May Face Legal Consequences
While the publication of Bolton's memoir is unlikely to come at a great cost for the president, his former top aide may potentially reap a whirlwind, according to the observers. Previously, Trump threatened Bolton with potential "legal consequences" if the former national security adviser proceeds with publishing his book.
"I will consider every conversation with me as president highly classified. So that would mean that if he wrote a book and if the book gets out, he's broken the law. That's called criminal liability. That's a big thing", the president said.
Trump's threats aren't empty, since "the federal court found Bolton published his book in violation of federal law that protects national security", elaborates Robert Barns, a US constitutional, civil trial and criminal tax lawyer.
"The court's finding that Bolton 'lost his gamble' means that Bolton will likely be stripped of all profits from the book and faces a serious risk of federal criminal charges", he explains. "For his critics, Bolton ending up broke and in prison would be appropriate given his decades-long history of pushing millions around the world into early graves through ceaseless war-mongering".
