Jihadist Insurgency in Mozambique Has ‘Crossed the Threshold’, Says Africa Expert

Islamist insurgents have taken control of the port of Mocimboa da Praia and the nearby island of Vamizi in Mozambique's Cabo Delgado province, close to the border with Tanzania.

Clashes between government forces and insurgents have claimed more than 1,500 lives since 2017 and forced 250,000 people out of their homes.

​Now a group calling itself Islamic State Central Africa Province (ISCAP) says it is behind fighting in the region.

Muslim Minority in the North

While most of Mozambique is Christian and the Roman Catholic Church are very influential, Cabo Delgado province is predominantly Muslim and in recent years radical imams from Kenya and Tanzania have moved into the area.  

​Jasmine Opperman, an Africa analyst with the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED) Project, told Sputnik the Mozambican government was "weak" and had ignored growing discontent in Cabo Delgado. She said the local people were angry at the lack of job opportunities and investment in the province.

She said: "A more extremist narrative from countries like Kenya and Tanzania influencing local discontent cannot be ignored."

Ms Opperman said the first attacks took place in 2017: "The extremist narrative cannot be denied. There is limited governance and limited opportunity in Cabo Delgado. The extremist voices fed on this and the discontent led to an increase in violence."

​She said the government initially saw it as just an internal power struggle within the Muslim community and ignored it and added: “When the first attacks came in October 2017 it came as a surprise.”

Frelimo Has Ruled Since 1975

The government of Mozambique is led by Filipe Nyusi, whose Frelimo party have ruled over the country since it became independent from Portugal in 1975.

Mozambique is an impoverished country but the discovery of natural gas in Cabo Delgado province has drawn in foreign investors.

The French company Total is investing up to US$50 billion in the development of a liquefied natural gas project in Cabo Delgado and Britain’s Centrica has agreed to buy 2.6 million tonnes a year.

“The insurgency would have started without the gas, in my opinion. But what we are seeing now is the government aligning itself with the LNG sector,” said Ms Opperman.

Gas Boom in Cabo Delgado

But will the LNG projects benefit the people of Cabo Delgado or will the money be siphoned off by a Frelimo elite in Maputo, who have been accused of ignoring the northern provinces of Cabo Delgado, Niassa and Nampula?

Ms Opperman said: "Taking into consideration of corruption by Government officials, one cannot help to fear that a similar situation will evolve related to the LNG sector."

She said: "The Mozambican government has got a problem. It’s not acknowledging local problems and grievances. We have crossed the threshold. We need security urgently in Cabo Delgado."

​One option might be bringing in foreign military advisers but Ms Opperman said: "The stronger the foreign influence within the defence force - whether it be western states or Russia - the more it will fuel the Islamists’ propaganda."

Are Government Forces Guilty of Atrocities?

This week human rights watchdog Amnesty International called for an independent inquiry into a video which emerged on social media on Monday, 14 September, showing a naked pregnant woman apparently being beaten and shot dead by men in military uniform. It was reportedly filmed near the village Awasse in Cabo Delgado province.

​Amnesty said: "The authorities in Mozambique must immediately launch an independent and impartial investigation into the extrajudicial killing of a defenceless naked woman.”

Amnesty said the killers could be heard executioners shouting in Portuguese that the woman is a member of al-Shabaab, another name for the jihadist forces in Cabo Delgado.

But Interior Minister Amade Miquidade said the video was a false flag incident and the killers were jihadists dressed in uniforms "identical" to those worn by government troops.

He said: "The video showing atrocities against a pregnant woman is propaganda by terrorists. The video was made by terrorists...to confuse the public.”

Ms Opperman said she had watched the video and had no doubt the men in uniform were members of the army, known as the Mozambican Defence Armed Forces (FADM).

​She said the insurgents were incapable of staging such an elaborate piece of “sophisticated propaganda” and she said there was evidence the FADM had perpetrated atrocities dating back to 2018.

Difficulty of Fighting Insurgency

Ms Opperman said the FADM had suffered from low levels of funding and training and added: “In Cabo Delgado they don’t speak the local dialect and are fighting an enemy they don’t know. War is war but they have had a free hand to vandalise and loot…if they suspect people of being insurgents they will just kill them.”

She said she did not see a “bright future” in Mozambique and feared ISCAP could be close to deploying Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs) in Cabo Delgado.

Ms Opperman said if Total came under attack and French soldiers were sent to protect the gas fields then “Cabo Delgado is going to explode.”  

​Filipe Nyusi is only Mozambique’s fourth President. The first, Samora Machel, was killed in a plane crash in 1986.

At the time Machel’s Frelimo government was fighting an insurgency by right-wing Renamo rebels, backed by South Africa.

Around a million people died during the conflict, which ended in 1992 following the collapse of the apartheid government in South Africa.