UK Security Watchdog 'Likely' to Investigate Possible Intel Fail Behind Hasty Afghan Pullout
11:57 GMT 21.08.2021 (Updated: 15:15 GMT 28.05.2023)
© Flickr / UK Ministry of Defence
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Both Prime Minister Boris Johnson and Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab have insisted there was no failure in intelligence-gathering relating to Afghanistan, claiming that “the collapse of the Afghan forces” in the face of a Taliban offensive had been “much faster than expected”.
The UK parliament’s intelligence and security committee (ISC) is “very likely” to demand access to secret intel analysis that accompanied the chaotic withdrawal of US and NATO forces from Afghanistan, leading to a swift Taliban* takeover, sources are cited by The Guardian as saying.
The ISO, chaired by the Tory MP Julian Lewis, has been reportedly prompted to seek joint intelligence committee (JIC) assessments relating to Afghanistan after UK ministers claimed they were caught unawares by lightening speed with which the Islamist militant group routed Afghan government forces.
There was growing scepticism among those familiar with the intelligence community that Britain’s spooks failed to foresee the situation in Afghanistan, a source close to the ISC reportedly revealed.
Taliban fighters (a terrorist group banned in Russia) pose for a photo in Kabul, Afghanistan.
© Sputnik / Stringer
/ Furthermore, a former CIA counter-terrorism chief in the US has claimed the administrations of both former President Donald Trump, and his successor, current POTUS Joe Biden, were provided with intel warning of the likely fallout from a hasty pullout from Afghanistan. The intelligence assessments had purportedly determined that the Afghan army might fold under the Taliban onslaught “within days”.
“the failure was not due to any lack of warning, but rather the hubris & political risk calculus of decision makers whose choices are too often made in their personal & political interest…rather than influenced by intelligence”https://t.co/ZtL6nRqEyX
— Douglas London (@douglaslondon5) August 18, 2021
Douglas London, the CIA’s former counter-terrorism chief for south and south-west Asia, said the president was being “misleading at best” claiming everything “did unfold more quickly than we had anticipated.”
“The CIA anticipated it as a possible scenario,” said London in an article for Just Security.
"While it’s certainly convenient to depict the shock and miscalculation US officials claim over Afghanistan’s tragic, rapid fall to the Taliban as an intelligence failure, the reality is far worse," said London.
Julian Lewis said in the House of Commons on Wednesday that the question of intelligence relating to Afghanistan was “pertinent”, whithout offering any further comment. There has not been any official response from the committee spokesperson. The ISC, scheduled to next meet in October, will have to take a formal decision on demanding the intelligence and whether to launch an inquiry pertinent to the matter.
It does not have the power to look into ongoing operations, writes the outlet.
It does not have the power to look into ongoing operations, writes the outlet.
‘Intelligence Failure’
Meanwhile, pressure is building in parliament to demand a probe into whether the UK displayed an intelligence failure relating to Afghanistan, as Western nations engage in what US President Joe Biden described as “the largest airlift of people in history”.
This handout photo courtesy of US Marines Corps shows evacuees stage before boarding a C-17 Globemaster III during an evacuation at Hamid Karzai International Airport, Kabul, Afghanistan, August 18, 2021
© AFP 2023 / NICHOLAS GUEVARA
British MPs such as the former defence minister Tobias Ellwood have urged a full public inquiry.
Labour peer and former chair of the committee, Ann Taylor, said the ISC “must undertake an urgent and comprehensive inquiry into what can only be called an intelligence failure”.
Labour peer and former chair of the committee, Ann Taylor, said the ISC “must undertake an urgent and comprehensive inquiry into what can only be called an intelligence failure”.
“It is inconceivable that the west would have gone ahead with this withdrawal in this way if we had known that this catastrophe would have unfolded as it has. There must have been a comprehensive intelligence assessment at the highest level, both in the UK and in the US, with whom we work so closely. Therefore, we have to ask what went wrong and we need to have a full and urgent inquiry into this,” Taylor told the House of Lords.
‘No One Saw This Coming’
UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson and Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab earlier insisted the speed of the takeover by the Taliban was not anticipated. Both had been on planned holidays as the Islamist group pressed ahead with its offensive, ultimately seizing the capital, Kabul, on 15 August. Dominic Raab has argued that it was impossible to predict the Taliban would retake Afghanistan so soon in the wake of withdrawing US and NATO troops, adding, “no one saw this coming”.
Prime Minister Boris Johnson, when opening a recalled session of parliament to discuss the crisis in Afghanistan, claimed it was "not true" to say the UK was "unprepared" for, or "did not foresee", events in the south Asian country.
He told MPs the collapse of Afghanistan's government happened faster "than even the Taliban predicted".
"The very difficult logistical operation for the withdrawal of UK nationals has been under preparation for many months, and I can tell the House that the decision to commission the emergency handling centre at the airport took place two weeks ago," said Johnson.
An update on the situation in Afghanistan. pic.twitter.com/kRz5Bvkfb3
— Boris Johnson (@BorisJohnson) August 20, 2021
Labour’s Keir Starmer accused the government of displaying "staggering complacency" about the developments, and "the result is that the Taliban are now back in control of Afghanistan".
He also referred to the fact that the US decided in February 2020 to withdraw its forces by May 2021, which indicated that the UK had 18 months to prepare for the fallout.
* A terrorist organisation banned in Russia.
