From Socioeconomic Revolutions to New 'Cold War': Saxo Bank Serves Up ‘Outrageous Predictions’ 2022
19:04 GMT 02.12.2021 (Updated: 18:23 GMT 03.11.2022)
The Saxo Bank Group (Saxo), a Danish online multi-asset trading and investment platform, in its annual “Outrageous Predictions” typically warns of events that, while unlikely to happen, could be devastating to the economy and create shock waves in society if they did.
Danish Saxo Bank has released
a fresh batch of "Outrageous Predictions" for 2022, with CEO Steen Jakobsen emphasising that as “culture wars rage across the world, it’s no longer a question of if we get a socioeconomic revolution, but a question of when and how.”
Here are the ten “revolutionary” predictions that are deemed unlikely but potentially fraught with shock waves across markets.
1. After policymakers realise the “inflationary threat” stemming from the impact of currently surging commodities prices coupled with an “unrealistic” timeline for the transition to green energy, they will take a rain check on much-touted climate targets
. As environmental, social, and governance (ESG) criteria has become more popular among investors, this has become a key restraint on the funds needed to maintain or expand mining and energy production.
31 October 2021, 10:18 GMT
Accordingly, in a pragmatic approach, investment for oil production and natural gas production will be encouraged for five years and ten years, to ensure that an abundance of reasonably priced supplies “bridge the gap” from the current “energy-consuming” reality heading into a “low-carbon energy” future. As the energy sector gets a “new lease on life,” iShares of Stoxx EU 600 Oil & Gas ETF will surge by an estimated 50 percent.
2. As Facebook
slumps from being a “vibrant hub” for the young generation to a platform riddled with fake news and seen as representing the “evil boomer generation” in 2022, investors will realise that Meta is facing loss of profitability. Meta will attempt to acquire Snapchat or TikTok while injecting billions of dollars into building the Metaverse, aimed at surveilling users.
CEO Mark Zuckerberg’s “monopolistic” aspirations will be shattered as the Facebook parent company Meta will find itself struggling, its shares down 30 percent versus the broader market.
3. After the chaotic 2020 US Presidential Election – when Donald Trump
initially refused to concede defeat and claimed the process had been rigged to favour his Democratic rival Joe Biden – in the wake of the 2022 election, Democrats or Republicans may move against certifying the vote. As it becomes impossible for the new Congress to form and sit on 3 January 3, 2023, Joe Biden
will rule by decree and the US democracy will find itself “suspended."
The year 2023 will witness a full-blown constitutional crisis fraught with extreme volatility in US assets. US treasury yields will soar as the dollar plummets.
will get out of control in 2022 as the Federal Reserve and its chair Jerome Powell repeat mistakes made in the 1960s by then US Federal Reserve chair McChesney Martin. Coming against the backdrop of a post-coronavirus pandemic economy and contrained labour market, marred by a vast exodus of older workers.
Fueled also by the dawning realisation by workers across sectors and income classes that they should demand better job conditions, higher wages, etc, US inflation will top 15 percent before the start of 2023 for the first time since WWII. This will inevitably be fraught with extreme volatility in US equity and credit markets.
5. As the European Union seeks to bolster its defences and jump-start economies, French President Emmanuel Macron
, with the support of Italian Prime Minister Draghi, will roll out a vision for an “EU Superfund."
The plan will address priorities of defence, climate, and related clean energy transition. To fund this, France will seek to overhaul its pension system, deciding that all pensions for workers above 40 must contribute a larger portion of assets into Superfund bonds. As a result, the younger generation will bask in conditions of a stronger job market and less unfair tax burdens.
6. 2022 will witness a massive grass-roots effort based on social media platforms to force companies to address unfair, sexist
, racist, ageist practices. Accordingly, a Women’s Reddit Army will see women traders coordinating a long squeeze by shorting stocks of selected companies.
The traders will be channelling funds to companies showing encouraging data on female representation in middle management and among executives. The movement will witness the start of a gender equality renaissance across markets.
7. Among a reorientation of alliances to secure long-term energy supplies, India could join the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) as a non-voting member. This alliance would bring India
energy security with secured long-term import commitments. As a result, the Indian rupee will display increased resilience throughout the volatile market year.
8. In 2022, a non-fungible tokens, or NFT-based service, will begin offering music from notable stars like Katy Perry and Jason Derulo, who have thrown their weight behind thecreation of a blockchain-powered streaming platform.
Artists will start pulling their music from “traditional” streaming platforms, such as Spotify and Apple Music, that don’t channel subscribers’ fees to the actual music an individual subscriber listens to. Market investors will, accordingly, send Spotify’s shares tumbling by 33 percent in 2022.
9. In 2022, hypersonics
and space become a new phase of rivalry between the US and China. As other major powers such as Russia, India, Israel and the EU join in, the second pillar of the old Cold War-era – the principle of mutually assured destruction (MAD) in the event of nuclear war – will become eroded. There will be massive funding channelled into companies like Raytheon that build hypersonic technology with space delivery capabilities.
22 November 2021, 11:13 GMT
10. 2022 will see a major breakthrough in the search of ways to slow the human ageing process, ranging from therapeutics to “tweaking” at the DNA
level. There emerges the possibility that average life expectancy can be extended by 25 years or more, with age 80 becoming the new 50. This will open up the prospect of living to an average age of 115 and more.